20206-04-16 カリフォルニア大学サンディエゴ校（UCSD）
Mangroves in La Paz Bay, Mexico, stand at the edge of urban expansion, where development meets one of the most valuable coastal ecosystems on Earth. Credit: Octavio Aburto/Scripps Institution of Oceanography
＜関連情報＞
- https://today.ucsd.edu/story/new-metric-identifies-at-risk-mangroves-before-they-disappear
- https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/fee.70041
保全に関する悲観論と楽観論を超えて：マングローブ生態系を保護するための積極的かつリスクに基づいたアプローチ Beyond conservation pessimism and optimism: a proactive, risk-based approach to protect mangrove systems
Valentina Platzgummer, Fabio Favoretto, Octavio Aburto-Oropeza
Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment Published: 16 April 2026
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1002/fee.70041
Abstract
Conservation has long operated reactively, intervening only after ecosystems begin to degrade. At the same time, growing attention to “conservation optimism” highlights successful interventions that offer hope for reversing ecological decline. To translate optimism into action, we present the Mangrove Threat Index (MTI), a spatially explicit, risk-based framework designed to anticipate mangrove degradation before it occurs. Using proximity to anthropogenic pressures as a proxy for degradation risk, the MTI enables decision-makers to identify vulnerable mangrove patches and prioritize early intervention. Applied to 530 mangrove patches across 13 global regions, the MTI correctly predicted 78% of observed losses between 2010 and 2020. A case study from La Paz, Mexico, illustrates how the index informed the co-design of a passive conservation strategy with local stakeholders. Although developed for mangroves, the MTI framework can be adapted to other ecosystems facing land-use pressures, offering a transferable and science-based pathway toward proactive, place-based conservation.
