2026-04-29 ミシガン大学
Warming experiments including B4WarmED, which is shown here and operated by the University of Minnesota, enabled a new analysis led by the University of Michigan. That analysis has shown that just a few species can dominate a plant community’s thermal preferences as the planet’s temperatures increase. Image credit: Artur Stefanski
＜関連情報＞
- https://news.umich.edu/just-a-few-species-can-drive-a-plant-communitys-response-to-warming-temperatures/
- https://www.pnas.org/doi/abs/10.1073/pnas.2533434123
実験的な温暖化条件下では、いくつかの主要な種が群集の好熱化を促進する A few key species drive community thermophilization under experimental warming
Kara C. Dobson, Kai Zhu, Yiluan Song, +6 , and Peter B. Reich
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Published:April 28, 2026
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2533434123
Significance
As the climate warms, plant communities are expected to shift toward species that thrive in hotter conditions. Using data from six experimental warming sites across the United States, we show that warming directly increases the abundance of warm-associated plant species. We also identify the small number of species most responsible for these changes at each site. Knowing which species drive community responses to warming can help land managers and conservation practitioners better plan for ecosystem resilience in a rapidly warming climate.
Abstract
Community thermophilization—the process by which communities are increasingly dominated by species from warmer biogeographic regions—is a widespread ecological response to warming. However, most studies on thermophilization use observational data, making it difficult to directly attribute warming as the driver of thermophilization. Furthermore, knowledge of specific species that are key drivers of thermophilization may be especially relevant to natural resource management and restoration practices, but these key contributors are rarely identified in thermophilization studies. To address these gaps, we analyzed plant community data from six experimental warming studies across the United States. We quantified thermophilization within and across years using the Community Temperature Index (CTI), which reflects the average thermal affinity of species in a community, and then decomposed CTI changes into individual species contributions. Across experiments, warmed plots consistently had higher CTIs than ambient plots, demonstrating a clear causal effect of warming. In all experiments, thermophilization was driven by a small subset of species: The Gini coefficients for species contributions ranged from 0.49 to 0.85, indicating that a small number of species account for most of the contributions. These findings confirm warming as a driver for community thermophilization and highlight the key species responsible for the shifts in CTIs, which may be especially relevant for conservation initiatives aimed at increasing community resilience or maintaining ecosystem function in a warmer climate.
