AI画像解析でブドウ果実の成長を予測するモデルを開発~ワイン生産に向けて収穫時期予測や栽培管理の高度化に期待~

2026-10-08 北海道大学

北海道大学北方生物圏フィールド科学センターなどの研究チームは、人工知能(AI)による画像解析と果実生理学の知見を組み合わせ、ブドウ果実の成長を高精度に予測する手法を開発した。研究では、北海道余市町の果樹園で栽培されたワイン用ブドウ「ケルナー」と「ツヴァイゲルト」の果房をデジタルカメラで撮影し、物体検出AI「YOLOv8」で果粒を認識して直径を推定した。しかし、果粒の重なりや脱落によって、実際には成長中なのに推定サイズが小さくなる問題が生じた。そこで、果実の生育初期には直径が減少しないという生物学的知見を組み込んだ平滑化アルゴリズム「F-smoothed」を導入したところ、両品種で典型的な二重シグモイド型の成長曲線が得られ、主に7月と8月に2回の急成長期が確認された。本手法は果実を採取せずに成長を追跡できるため、収穫適期の予測、品質評価のための採取時期の決定、栽培管理の効率化に役立つと期待される。

AI画像解析でブドウ果実の成長を予測するモデルを開発~ワイン生産に向けて収穫時期予測や栽培管理の高度化に期待~
YOLOv8によるブドウ果粒の認識の一例。発達途中のブドウ品種’ツヴァイゲルト’の果房を2024年8月3日に撮影。サイズと色の補正のため、自作したラベル札と一緒に撮影している。The Horticulture Journal誌掲載論文より転載(CC BY-NC 4.0、改変なし)。

<関連情報>

YOLOv8とBiology-Informed Smoothingによるブドウ果実のモニタリング手法の確立 Monitoring Relative Grape Berry Growth in the Field with YOLOv8 and Biology-informed Smoothing

Jixiao Li, Teruo Sone, Xiangji Meng, Kentaro Hirayama, Minoru Ikuta, Yoshihisa Inose, Yoichiro Hoshino
The Horticulture Journal  Available on J-STAGE: July 15, 2026
DOI:https://doi.org/10.2503/hortj.SZD-110

Abstract

Uncontrolled lighting, occlusion, and variations in viewing angles make it difficult to perform high-frequency, non-destructive monitoring of grape (Vitis vinifera L.) berry growth in the field. Instead of tracking absolute millimeter-level size, a biology-informed pipeline based on YOLOv8 to track relative growth trends is presented. A biology-informed, monotonicity-constrained smoothing step (F-smoothed) is integrated into a workflow that also includes object detection, pixel-to-centimeter conversion using an in-frame 1-cm ruler, preliminary smoothing (outlier removal, interpolation, moving average), and double-sigmoid fitting to summarize phase timing. Images of the ‘Kerner’ and ‘Zweigelt’ clusters in Yoichi, Hokkaido (2024 season; 10 clusters; 1–3-day intervals) were examined as a field case study. On a hold-out validation set, the trained YOLOv8s model demonstrated stable identification (mAP50 = 0.931; mAP50–95 = 0.704; Precision = 0.906; Recall = 0.875). In an independent laboratory validation using detached berries from the 2025 season imaged on a white background, image-derived diameters closely agreed with manual caliper measurements over a range of approximately 0.3–2.3 cm (n = 89; mean absolute error = 0.08 cm; root mean square error = 0.09 cm; mean absolute percentage error = 7.2%; bias = +0.07 cm; R2 = 0.97). Biologically credible trajectories were obtained by applying F-smoothed, averaged cultivar curves followed a double-sigmoid pattern with clear timing features. Such relative temporal indicators are directly relevant for viticultural decisions such as scheduling field inspections and harvest windows and for designing sampling strategies for berry composition and quality. Although destructive sampling of the 2024 field clusters was not undertaken, the combination of a validated measurement module and biology-informed smoothing provides reliable phase timing and relative trend tracking in real-world scenarios. With only a handheld camera and conventional computing, this approach offers a practical methodology for non-destructive growth monitoring that emphasizes temporal dynamics while retaining interpretable links to physical berry size.

1204農業及び蚕糸
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