新しいモデル研究では、風力と太陽光の潜在能力が季節や年によって大きく異なることが示され、二酸化炭素排出量をゼロにするために世界が自然エネルギーにシフトする際に、バックアップエネルギー源が必要になる可能性があることが示唆されています。 In a new modeling study, researchers show how widely wind and solar potential vary by season and year, suggesting that backup energy sources may be needed as the world shifts to renewables to bring carbon emissions to zero.
2022-04-12 コロンビア大学
この警告は、コロンビア工学部とコロンビア気候スクールの教授であるUpmanu Lallが発したものです。
＜関連情報＞
- https://news.columbia.edu/news/could-energy-droughts-be-next
- https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666389922000277
k-ニアレストネイバ時空シミュレータと大規模風力・太陽光発電モデリングへの応用 A k-nearest neighbor space-time simulator with applications to large-scale wind and solar power modeling
YashAmonkar,David J.Farnham,UpmanuLall
Patterns Published:11 March 2022
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.patter.2022.100454
図3. KSTS（紫）とKNN（緑）を使ってシミュレートしたテキサス相互接続における毎日のエネルギー生産量のカーネル密度推定値/確率密度関数
Summary
We develop and present a k-nearest neighbor space-time simulator that accounts for the spatiotemporal dependence in high-dimensional hydroclimatic fields (e.g., wind and solar) and can simulate synthetic realizations of arbitrary length. We illustrate how this statistical simulation tool can be used in the context of regional power system planning under a scenario of high reliance on wind and solar generation and when long historical records of wind and solar power generation potential are not available. We show how our simulation model can be used to assess the probability distribution of the severity and duration of energy “droughts” at the network scale that need to be managed by long-duration storage or alternate energy sources. We present this estimation of supply-side shortages for the Texas Interconnection.
