2026-03-13 東京大学
シミュレーションにおいて青で示す介入を徐々に弱くし、台風弱化を実現する「小さい力」を探求する。
＜関連情報＞
- https://www.t.u-tokyo.ac.jp/press/pr2026-03-13-001
- https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2025GL120393
熱帯低気圧の制御可能性に関するデータ駆動型探究 Data-Driven Exploration of Tropical Cyclone’s Controllability
Yohei Sawada, Masashi Minamide, Yuyue Yan, Kazumune Hashimoto, Le Duc
Geophysical Research Letters Published: 13 March 2026
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL120393
Abstract
Although the chaotic nature of the atmosphere may enable efficient control of tropical cyclones (TCs) via small-scale perturbations, few studies have proposed data-driven optimization methods to identify such perturbations. Here, we apply the recently proposed Ensemble Kalman Control (EnKC) to a TC simulation. We show that EnKC finds small-scale perturbations that mitigate TC. An EnKC-estimated reduction in surface water vapor, located approximately 250 km from the TC center, suppresses convective activity and latent heat release in the eye wall, leading to a reduction of TC intensity. To advance the discovery of feasible TC mitigation strategies, we discuss the potential of this data-driven method for leveraging chaos, as well as its remaining challenges.
Plain Language Summary
Tropical cyclones are chaotic systems, which means that small changes to the atmosphere might change how strong they become. We tested an approach called Ensemble Kalman Control that searches for the effective “small tweaks” to weaken a storm in a realistic weather model. Our method found useful tweaks that act over small areas. The most effective change was to slightly reduce the amount of water vapor near the ocean surface about 250 km from the storm’s center. This reduces activities of the tall thunderstorms and the release of heat in the ring of tall clouds, which in turn lowered the storm’s intensity. Our results suggest that targeted and data-driven interventions could someday help limit cyclone damage. However, they also highlight practical challenges.
