2026-10-16 ミュンヘン大学（LMU）
＜関連情報＞
- https://www.lmu.de/en/newsroom/news-overview/news/climate-protection-where-reforestation-bears-social-risks-940efeaa.html
- https://www.cell.com/one-earth/fulltext/S2590-3322(26)00273-3
植林および再植林に基づく二酸化炭素除去に対する世界的な社会経済的制約 Global socioeconomic constraints on afforestation- and reforestation-based carbon dioxide removal
Wenkai Bao ∙ Yiannis Moustakis ∙ Wolfgang A. Obermeier ∙ Matthias Garschagen ∙ Julia Pongratz
One Earth Published: October 16, 2026
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2026.101872
Highlights
- Forest carbon removal depends on social conditions, not only biophysical potential
- Poverty and food insecurity are leading constraints on afforestation/reforestation
- Land tenure and governance shape where planted forests can establish and persist
- Most forest carbon removal potential faces medium-to-high socioeconomic risk
Summary
Afforestation and reforestation are central to climate mitigation, yet their feasibility and viability depend on more than biophysical suitability. Without considering socioeconomic constraints, carbon dioxide removal (CDR) assessments risk mistaking biophysical potential for deployable removal, obscuring where projects can succeed and which investments are needed for durable, equitable implementation. Here, we combine an assessment of 200 studies with 78 machine-learning models to quantify socioeconomic associations with standing afforestation and reforestation and assess implications for future CDR. Poverty, food insecurity, insecure land tenure, and weak governance emerge globally as the most important constraints, alongside inadequate forestry infrastructure and stakeholder support. Approximately 73% of biophysical afforestation and reforestation carbon removal potential lies in countries facing medium-to-high socioeconomic constraints. These results show that socioeconomic feasibility and viability must be integrated into removal assessments, with poverty reduction and effective institutional capacity treated as enabling conditions for equitable and durable climate action.
