研究により、中国北東部の40年間にわたる土壌侵食の動態と将来のリスクが明らかに（Study Maps 40-Year Soil Erosion Dynamics and Future Risks in Northeast China）

2026-09-21 中国科学院（CAS）

＜関連情報＞

• https://english.cas.cn/newsroom/research-news/202609/t20260922_1201109.shtml
• https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X26008435?via%3Dihub
• https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0341816226005813?via%3Dihub

中国東北部黒土地域における土壌侵食感受性とリスクのパターン再構築と閾値相互フィードバック：RUSLEとGeoDetectorに基づく40年間の分析 Pattern reconstruction and threshold mutual feedback of soil erosion sensitivity and risk in the black soil region of Northeast China: A 40-year analysis based on RUSLE and GeoDetector

Xuexian Zhang, Yanru Wen, Jia Chen, Peng He, Lu-Jun Li
Ecological Indicators  Available online 5 September 2026
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.115442

Highlights

• Erosion risk shifted from mountains to agricultural plains over 40 years.
• Positive feedback keeps plains at persistently high erosion levels.
• Key thresholds support targeted erosion control across sub-regions.
• Multi-factor synergy explains erosion far better than single factors.
• This framework shifts practice from empirical to zonal management.

Abstract

Soil erosion poses a serious threat to global black soil security, yet long-term threshold feedback between erosion sensitivity and risk remains unclear. Clarifying spatiotemporal erosion patterns, sensitivity dynamics, and multi-factor drivers is critical for targeted prevention strategies. To address this gap, we quantified erosion intensity, sensitivity, and risk across the black soil region of Northeast China (BSNC) from 1980 to 2020 by integrating the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) with the Geographical Detector (GeoDetector). The results reveal that the high-risk centre of soil erosion has shifted from the Changbai Mountains to agricultural plains including the Song-Liao and flood plain. A positive feedback loop between erosion intensity and sensitivity keeps plain areas persistently locked at a mild-to-moderate intensity level. Critical soil erosion sensitivity thresholds show prominent hierarchical spatial divergence: the western steppe requires only 65% vegetation cover to curb erosion, whereas eastern agricultural plains require coverage above 82%. The steppe also exhibits an erosion-triggering rainfall erosivity threshold of only 1040 MJ·mm·hm⁻²·h⁻¹·a⁻¹, far below mountain zones. The Song-Liao plain exhibits a bimodal soil erosion susceptibility (S_kd) distribution, with both S_kd I and S_kd V areas exceeding 30% of the total land. GeoDetector results indicate that the interaction between soil erodibility and land use reaches 0.4979, far higher than any single factor, highlighting that synergistic amplification of multiple factors drives erosion risk accumulation in the region. The nonlinear vegetation thresholds, positive feedback loops, and gentle-slope erosion mechanisms revealed here offer a transferable framework for other intensively farmed gentle-slope regions.

中国東北部黒土地域における土地利用変化に伴う土壌侵食リスクと予測（RUSLEおよびPLUSモデルに基づく） Soil erosion risk and prediction under land use changes based on RUSLE and PLUS models in the black soil region of Northeast China

Xuexian Zhang, Jiaoyang Zhang, Peng He, Shanshan Dai, Lu-Jun Li
CATENA  Available online: 30 June 2026
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2026.110371

Highlights

• Integrated RUSLE-PLUS modeling reveals long-term land use-erosion feedbacks.
• Cropland expansion significantly elevates regional soil erosion rates.
• Farmland protection scenario paradoxically increases future erosion risks.
• Early-warning system identifies high-risk erosion zones.
• This study provides a scientific basis for synergizing food and ecological security.

Abstract

Land use changes caused by human activities altering surface vegetation cover and soil structure are the key drivers of intensified soil erosion. However, how to use existing tools and methods for the rational planning of land use resources to achieve sustainable development is the focus of current research. This study integrated the RUSLE and PLUS models to reveal the mutual feedback mechanism between land use transitions and soil erosion risks in the black soil region of Northeast China (BSNC) from 1980 to 2030. The results indicate that over the past 40 years, upland field areas have expanded by 3.04×10⁴ km² (primarily converted from forestland and grassland, accounting for 41.2% and 38.7%, respectively), and this expansion has increased their erosion rate by 205.93 t·km^-2·a^-1. Meanwhile, 49.22% of the newly added construction land during the urbanization process was converted from upland fields. Grassland and forestland areas have decreased by 2.15×10⁴ km² and 1.80×10⁴ km², respectively. Sandy land exhibits the highest soil erosion potential risk index (7.68), with extreme sensitivity areas accounting for over 80% of its total area. Projections for 2030 establish a 20.76% and 42.17% higher regional erosion rate under the farmland protection scenario compared to the natural development and ecological conservation scenarios, respectively, resulting from the expansion of highly erodible upland field. This study establishes a regional erosion risk early warning system, thereby providing a scientific basis for optimizing territorial spatial planning and ensuring food security in the BSNC.