2026-09-18 マックス・プランク研究所
＜関連情報＞
- https://www.mpg.de/26982012/seasonal-scarcity-and-the-challenge-of-preserving-natural-resources
- https://www.cell.com/cell-reports-sustainability/fulltext/S2949-7906(26)00199-0
季節的な経済変動が違法な資源採掘を助長する Seasonal economic fluctuations drive illegal resource extractions
Jeffrey Andrews ∙ Elspeth Ready ∙ Bakari Makame Khamis ∙ … ∙ Machano Ali Makame ∙ Rashid Sulieman Rashid ∙ Matthew Clark
Cell reports Sustainability Published: September 16, 2026
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crsus.2026.100830
Highlights
- Seasonal income shortfalls increase illegal resource extraction
- Illegal extraction responds more strongly to cash than subsistence sectors
- Seasonal income cycles generate predictable within-year variation in illegal activity
- Climate-induced shifts in rainfall can amplify illegal activity
Summary
Illegal resource extraction threatens conservation and development, yet its relationship with seasonal cycles remains unclear. Using 15 years of forestry patrol arrest records from Pemba, Zanzibar, together with biweekly household economic and weather data, we trace how seasonal weather patterns move through the local economy and influence illegal forestry. On average, the seasonal cycle causes arrests to vary by 20%, with arrests rising during periods of depressed income. These patterns are shaped by fluctuating earnings from clove harvesting and fishing, and downstream manufacturing and retail. We also use climate-change projections to examine how shifts in the short-rain season could affect illegal extraction. Forward simulations indicate that altered rainfall timing may intensify illegal activity by reducing earnings from legal economic opportunities. Policies that smooth income during predictable seasonal downturns could therefore reduce pressure on natural resources. Our approach offers a transferable framework for identifying intervention points in other seasonal economies.
