雨の予測における雲内の水滴の動きの重要性を解明(The Journey of Water Drops Matters in Predicting Rain)

2026-10-30 ブルックヘブン国立研究所(BNL)

米国ブルックヘブン国立研究所などの研究チームは、海洋上の雲において、水滴が雲内部を移動する経路や空気の流れが、降雨の発生頻度や雨滴の大きさを左右することを明らかにした。研究では、米国エネルギー省の大気放射測定(ARM)観測施設など世界各地の観測拠点で30年以上にわたり蓄積されたデータから、70万件以上の雲のサンプルを解析した。ライダー、ドップラーレーダー、マイクロ波放射計を組み合わせ、雲内部の空気の動き、水分量、雨滴の分布を調べた。その結果、同程度の液体水量を含む雲でも、穏やかで水分が比較的均一な層積雲は、積雲よりも頻繁に降水を生じることが判明した。一方、積雲では降水の発生頻度は低いものの、形成された雨滴は層積雲の場合より約2倍大きく、その数は数十~数百分の一だった。水滴が雲内部で水分の多い領域と乾燥した領域のどちらを通過するかが、成長や蒸発を左右するためである。本成果は、雲内部の微細な流れと水滴の移動履歴を考慮した降水予測モデルの高度化につながる。

雨の予測における雲内の水滴の動きの重要性を解明(The Journey of Water Drops Matters in Predicting Rain)
This map showsfour observation sites that Brookhaven Lab researchers used to study marine clouds: the Barbados Cloud Observatory, Gan Island, the Eastern North Atlantic observatory, and a ship route between Los Angeles and Hawaii sampled during the Marine ARM GPCI Investigation of Clouds campaign. The insets show examples of measurements of stratocumulus and cumulus properties including cloud boundaries, water content, and the motion of water drops. (Brookhaven National Laboratory)

<関連情報>

海洋雲における温暖降雨の生成は雲内部の動きによって左右される:複数年にわたる観測からの証拠 In-cloud motions shape warm-rain production in marine clouds: Evidence from multiyear observations

Katia Lamer, Pavlos Kollias, Jiseob Kim, +3 , and Edward Luke
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences  Published: October 21, 2026
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2608656123

Abstract

Despite years of research, the processes controlling warm-rain formation remain uncertain. Leveraging multiple years of observations collected across four oceanic regions, we systematically reassess the properties of precipitation just beneath cloud base. The observations show that warm-rain characteristics are remarkably consistent within cloud regimes yet differ substantially between stratocumulus and cumulus, indicating that cloud-regime properties exert a stronger influence on warm precipitation than regional environmental variability. Precipitation is observed beneath marine stratocumulus in over 56% of cloudy columns with liquid water path (LWP) <130 g m−2, rising to more than 84% in columns with LWP beyond 130 g m−2. This indicates that marine stratocumulus routinely support warm-rain formation and suggests that barriers to precipitation onset in this regime are weaker than commonly assumed. For the same LWP, oceanic cumulus precipitate less frequently than stratocumulus but on average produce two times larger and one to two orders of magnitude fewer precipitation drops. This contrast is consistent with cumulus presenting two times stronger updrafts and lower adiabaticity than stratocumulus, both of which can affect drop growth histories. Whereas the precipitation characteristics of stratocumulus are generally consistent with growth by collision–coalescence during gravitational free fall in low LWP clouds, those of cumulus cannot be explained without invoking additional processes. Together, these findings suggest that warm-precipitation parameterizations should more explicitly account for the influence of small-scale dynamical processes on precipitation growth. The apparent importance of drop growth histories further motivates continued exploration of Lagrangian particle-tracking approaches in both models and observations.

1702地球物理及び地球化学
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