低炭素開発が風力と太陽光の相乗効果を促進（Low-carbon Development Enhances Wind and Solar Synergy in China, Study Finds）

2025-06-20

2025-06-18 中国科学院 (CAS)

中国科学院新疆生態地理研究所の陳亜寧教授らによる研究で、低炭素開発が中国における風力・太陽光エネルギーの相乗効果を高め、安定化させることが示されました。CMIP6気候予測と再解析データを用い、今世紀中頃の風力発電・太陽光発電のポテンシャルとその組み合わせを、ベースライン（SSP2-4.5）と2つのカーボンニュートラルシナリオ（中程度・厳格）で比較。低炭素シナリオでは、特に中国東部・中部の風力減少が緩和され、太陽光は南東部にシフトしつつも安定して成長。風力の変動要因は主に風速変化、太陽光は短波放射量の変動に起因。政策による資源の時間的安定性向上は、再生可能エネルギーの供給信頼性向上につながるとしています。中国のカーボンニュートラル政策とエネルギー転換に科学的根拠を与える成果です。

＜関連情報＞

風力と太陽エネルギーの相乗効果に対する低炭素モデルの強化効果と安定化効果：中国からのエビデンス Enhancing and stabilizing effects of low-carbon models on the synergistic benefits of wind and solar energy: Evidence from China

Yunxia Long, Yaning Chen, Changchun Xu, Zhi Li, Jianyu Zhu, Yongchang Liu, Hongyu Wang
Applied Energy Available online: 30 May 2025
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2025.126212

Highlights

Low-carbon pathways reverse wind decline and enhances solar PV shift to southeast China.
WP change is driven by low-speed wind; solar PV_POT by surface radiation.
Global carbon neutrality improves stability and synergy of China’s WP and PV_POT.

Abstract

Wind and solar energy are seen as the most promising renewable energy sources for the future and will dominate future global renewable energy expansion. However, there is still a lack of sufficient research on the variation, especially the synergistic variation, of wind power (WP) and solar photovoltaic (PV_POT) generation under low-carbon modes. Here, we use bias-corrected Global Climate Models (GCMs) to analyse changes in WP and solar PV_POT by mid-century, providing a comprehensive assessment under two carbon-neutral scenarios. The results show that low-carbon modes significantly mitigate the continuous decline in China’s wind energy resources, particularly in East and Central China. In the future, China’s solar resources will shift southeastward, and under low-carbon modes, this growth trend becomes more significant, stable, and persistent. Beyond their individual effects on wind and solar energy, low-carbon modes notably improve the efficiency of wind and solar energy utilization, enhancing the synergistic benefits of renewable energy across the country. On this basis, further analysis of the drivers of WP and solar PV_POT changes in China reveals that changes in the frequency of cut-in wind speed (V < 3 m s⁻¹) and ramp-up wind speed (3 ≤ V ≤ 11 m s⁻¹) are the main contributors to the changes in 21st-century WP, whereas solar PV_POT changes are dominated by rsds, with a negligible effect of wind. Finally, we emphasise that global carbon neutral policies can effectively enhance the stability of China’s WP and solar PV_POT especially their synergistic benefits across different time scales. The results of the study can provide a scientific basis for the development of long-term renewable energy planning in China.