気候の温暖化が太陽光発電所の信頼性に影響する可能性(Warmer climate may impact reliability of solar farms: modelling)

2023-10-18

2023-10-18 ニューサウスウェールズ大学(UNSW)

◆オーストラリアの再生可能エネルギーへの移行が進行中ですが、気候変動による太陽光の信頼性変化が発電能力と電力グリッドの管理に影響を及ぼす可能性があります。
◆気温上昇により、オーストラリアの一部の地域では太陽エネルギーの信頼性が増加し、他の地域では減少する見込みで、これは将来のエネルギー供給に影響を与えます。大規模な太陽発電所の開発にも影響し、どの地域で開発を拡大し、どの地域で貯蔵技術に投資が必要かを考える必要があります。将来の気象極端も考慮し、太陽光発電を他の再生可能エネルギーと組み合わせる研究が必要です。

＜関連情報＞

オーストラリアの将来の温暖化における太陽光資源の断続性と信頼性の変化 Changes in solar resource intermittency and reliability under Australia’s future warmer climate

Shukla Poddar, Merlinde Kay, Abhnil Prasad, Jason P. Evans, Stephen Bremner
Solar Energy Available online: 17 October 2023
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.solener.2023.112039

Highlights

•Regional climate model simulations predict decline in solar intensity over West Australia by 2099.
•Future solar resource reliability may increase in regions of Eastern Australia.
•A decline in intermittency is predicted in regions of Eastern Australia by 2099.
•West Australia may expect increase in future intermittency with decrease in resource reliability.

Abstract

The dependency of photovoltaic (PV) power generation on meteorological parameters can impact power production due to weather-induced variability. During the day, fluctuations in radiation introduce intermittency in power generated, raising reliability and grid stability issues at higher penetration levels. Long-term future resource assessment provides an effective tool for estimating resource reliability and future intermittency essential for pre-feasibility site assessments around the world. Australia has high solar power capacity, with several solar farms in operational and developmental stage. Using Australia as a case study, this research aims to understand Australia’s solar resource distribution and variability using regional climate model projections under a high emission scenario. Results indicate an abundance of solar resource power density in Australia, especially in the North (450-500Wm⁻²). The solar resource will be more reliable in Eastern Australia in the future with ∼ 5% increase in resource density. Results suggest reduction in intermittency (∼20-minute lull periods) in the East with increase in clear-sky days/year in the future (∼20 days/year). Resource assessment of Sun Cable and New England solar farm located in Australia, revealed the future scope of increase in clear-sky days at the sites. This long-term future solar variability analysis can help identify regions in Australia where PV systems will be least susceptible to losses due to intermittency. Furthermore, this study will help in critical decision-making processes like planning storage systems, site selection, opportunities to create hybrid solar farms with the co-existence of solar and wind technology, etc., to mitigate the risks associated with future intermittent PV power generation.