2026-10-19 スイス連邦工科大学ローザンヌ校（EPFL）
＜関連情報＞
- https://actu.epfl.ch/news/how-to-make-climate-transitions-stick/
- https://journals.plos.org/climate/article?id=10.1371/journal.pclm.0000982
社会的転換点の次は？ネットゼロへの移行に関する視点 What comes after social tipping? Perspectives from transitions towards net-zero
Claudia R. Binder ,Alejandro Gomez,Jair Campfens,Maria Anna Hecher,Simón Ladino Cano,Léonard Léchot,Hanbit Lee,Simon Montfort
PLOS Climate Published: September 30, 2026
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000982
Abstract
The world is on track to exceed 1.5 °C of warming. To avoid further temperature increase, accelerated action to decarbonize our societies is needed. Scholars claim that this transition requires surpassing social tipping points (STPs). STPs are defined as non-linear processes of transformative change in social systems, where a small perturbation triggers a response that generates self-amplifying changes in behaviors. While research efforts have focused on analyzing triggers to tipping, we have little understanding of the structures and mechanisms that stabilize a new state after the tipping phase. We argue that post-tipping trajectories rarely converge to a single stable state. Instead, they converge to multiple coexisting (including reversed) states that can exist as spatial patterns and need to be designed-in for stability. Combining insights from ecological systems, where phenomena that occur after tipping have been researched, with empirical evidence on social tipping in transitions towards net zero, we shed light on states after tipping and on how they may be stabilized. Four phenomena shape post-tipping trajectories: (i) lock-in through co-adoption of technologies or feedback loops; (ii) the co-existence of states; (iii) the reversibility of sustainable behaviors; and (iv) infrastructure as a stabilizer of co-existing or new states. We found that a systemic approach that combines technological and social levers to create positive feedback is needed to stabilize a future state. We propose three policy design principles to achieve this: (1) prioritize infrastructure that creates positive lock-ins to new technologies; (2) combine deep (social norms) and shallow (co-adoption of technologies) levers; and (3) target network brokers to bridge adopter and non-adopter groups and establish diffusion structures.
