TanSat-2による人為的炭素排出と生態系炭素吸収源の識別可能性を実証(New Study Demonstrates TanSat-2’s Potential to Distinguish Human Carbon Emissions from Ecosystem Carbon Sinks)

2026-09-10 中国科学院(CAS)

中国科学院大気物理研究所と英国の研究者らは、次世代の炭素観測衛星TanSat-2が、人為起源の二酸化炭素(CO₂)排出と陸域生態系による炭素吸収・放出を区別して推定できる可能性を示した。研究では、大気中CO₂観測と太陽光誘起クロロフィル蛍光(SIF)を組み合わせた炭素フラックス逆解析手法を開発し、純一次生産量(NPP)と化石燃料燃焼排出量(FF)を同時に制約した。観測システムシミュレーションでは、TanSat-2のCO₂・SIF観測により、シベリアやアマゾンのNPP推定誤差を最大95%、シベリアなどの化石燃料排出量の誤差を約80%削減できると評価された。一方、衛星観測のわずかな系統誤差が炭素吸収源・排出源の誤判定につながるため、補正が重要となる。また、観測幅を広げることで推定の頑健性が向上することも確認。衛星、地上、航空機、現地観測を統合した炭素循環監視の重要性が示された。

<関連情報>

TanSat-2ミッションによる広範囲にわたる協調的なCO2および太陽光誘起蛍光測定の恩恵を受け、地球規模のCO2フラックス推定に向けた一歩前進 A Step Forward to Global Segment CO2 Flux Estimation Benefiting from Large Swath of Coordinated CO2 and Solar-Induced Fluorescence Measurements from the TanSat-2 Mission

Dongxu Yang,Liang Feng,Jing Wang,Paul I. Palmer,Xingbo Guo,Denghui Hu,Longfei Tian,Guohua Liu,Sihan Liu,Yi Liu & Junji Cao
Advances Atmospheric Sciences  Published:02 September 2026
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-026-6150-1

Abstract

To improve understanding of the global carbon cycle, China is preparing to launch the next-generation carbon monitoring satellite, TanSat-2, which will collect column measurements of carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4). We investigate the potential of TanSat-2 observations for assessing anthropogenic carbon emissions and ecosystem carbon sinks. To achieve this objective, we introduce a new carbon flux estimation method that combines atmospheric measurements of CO2 and solar-induced fluorescence (SIF) to jointly constrain net primary productivity (NPP) and fossil fuel combustion (FF). We apply EOF (empirical orthogonal function) analysis to the NPP and FF inventories to identify dominant spatiotemporal patterns to reduce the size of the state vector and to help disaggregate the natural and FF sources of CO2. Using observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs)—we find that TanSat-2 CO2 and SIF observations lead to an NPP error reduction of up to 95% over Siberia and the Amazon, and to error reductions of about 80% for FF emissions over Siberia, North Asia, the United States, and South Africa, if measurement bias could be eliminated. However, our OSSEs show that the presence of even a small XCO2 bias can cause serious distortion or misallocation of CO2 sources and sinks. Therefore, systematic observation bias needs to be properly addressed in retrieval and data application. We also explore the importance of adopting a large across-track swath in delivering robust CO2 flux estimates and develop an error matrix tool that could be used in future mission assessment.

1702地球物理及び地球化学
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