2026-04-13 アリゾナ大学
＜関連情報＞
- https://news.arizona.edu/news/u-research-finds-improved-weather-forecasts-could-reduce-heat-deaths-climate-warms
- https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2523372123
気候温暖化に伴い、死亡率を低下させる上で天気予報の重要性が増す Weather forecasts become more important for reducing mortality as the climate warms
Jeffrey G. Shrader, Stephan Thies, Laura Bakkensen, +1 , and Derek Lemoine
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Published:April 13, 2026
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2523372123
Significance
People use weather forecasts to avoid deadly consequences of extreme weather, but the usefulness of forecasts depends on their accuracy. We find that accurate temperature forecasts already save lives, particularly during periods of extreme heat. To assess how much further these benefits might grow, we surveyed meteorologists about their expectations for forecast accuracy over the coming century. Their different expectations imply substantially different levels of protection against future heat risk. The trajectory of forecast improvement becomes increasingly consequential as climate change increases the frequency and severity of hot days: Faster improvements to accuracy could prevent thousands of deaths each year.
Abstract
Climate change will increase the frequency and severity of extreme heat, which is a leading cause of weather-related mortality. We combine causal estimates of how temperature forecast accuracy affects mortality in the United States with expert projections of changes in forecast accuracy over the coming century. Our analysis shows that improving short-run temperature forecasts in line with central expert projections would reduce annual heat-related mortality by about 18% by 2100, saving thousands of lives per year. If investments in earth observation networks and weather models improve forecasts in line with optimistic expert projections, annual heat-related mortality would fall by around 25% by 2100. Improving forecasts facilitates adaptation to climate change, saving more lives when climate change is more severe.
