2023-09-28 アルゴンヌ国立研究所(ANL)
◆このデータは、スーパーコンピューターを使用して高分解能のシミュレーションを行い、個々の地域への洪水の影響を詳細に調査するのに役立ちます。これにより、洪水や降水の極端な事象がインフラストラクチャーやネットワークに与えるリスクを評価し、決定支援と対策の開発に貢献します。また、このデータは地域団体や住民にリスク情報を提供し、適応策を提案するのに役立ちます。
＜関連情報＞
- https://www.anl.gov/article/first-of-its-kind-dataset-shows-future-flooding-risk-at-neighborhood-level
- https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581823000587
アンサンブルWRF-Hydroシミュレーションを用いた21世紀半ばにおける米国北東部の極端な河川流量と内陸洪水の変化予測 Projected changes in extreme streamflow and inland flooding in the mid-21st century over Northeastern United States using ensemble WRF-Hydro simulations
Sujan Pal, Jiali Wang, Jeremy Feinstein, Eugene Yan, Veerabhadra Rao Kotamarthi
Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies Available online: 31 March 2023
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2023.101371
Highlights
•Continental-scale decadal high-resolution WRF-Hydro simulations were performed.
•Extreme value analysis and uncertainty quantification were applied to assess risk.
•Extreme river flows in the northeast US are projected to increase in winter months.
•Extreme inland flooding is projected to increase in intensity and spatial extent.
•Evapotranspiration and soil moisture increase while snowpack decreases in the future.
Abstract
Study region
Northeastern United States (NEUS).
Study focus
We investigate the potential impacts of climate change on precipitation, streamflow, and inland flooding in the NEUS during the mid-21st century. Dynamically downscaled climate projections from three global climate models for historical (1995–2004) and future (2045–2054) periods under business-as-usual scenarios were used to force the hydrologic model WRF-Hydro at 200-meter resolution and create ensemble hydrologic simulations. Additionally, an extreme value model was developed to project the risks associated with low-frequency hydrologic events.
New hydrological insights for the region
Results from four major watersheds indicate a significantly wetter regime in winter months and potential drier conditions during late spring to early summer. Discharges in fall are projected to decrease in the northern watersheds and increase toward the south. Extreme flow and water depths resulting from extreme inland flooding are projected to increase by 5–20% and > 100%, respectively. The extent of the total flooded area is likely to be 20% greater by the mid-century. These increased risks can be attributed to (i) an approximate 25% increase in decadal mean and > 40% increase in decadal extreme precipitation intensity, (ii) up to 30% lower snow availability and 5–25% higher evapotranspiration throughout the year, and (iii) a projected 5% increase in soil moisture in all seasons except summer. Furthermore, rapid snow melting in winter will likely cause an earlier peak flow in the rivers.
