2026-07-17 ペンシルベニア州立大学（Penn State）
＜関連情報＞
- https://www.psu.edu/news/agricultural-sciences/story/energy-price-shocks-slow-state-economies-spur-energy-efficiency
- https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988326003798
エネルギー価格ショックが米国の地域産業に与える影響：州レベルの分析 The impact of energy price shocks on US local industries: A state-level analysis
Minsu Kim, Stephan J. Goetz
Energy Economics Available online: 11 July 2026
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2026.109500
Highlights
- The study extends knowledge on how energy price shock affects GDP in long-term via investment.
- We estimate a recursive dynamic system that captures direct and indirect impact of energy prices on output.
- On average, improved energy intensity offset between 2% to 5% of the short run GDP decline.
- Policy design should consider supporting investment on energy efficiency especially during energy price shock.
Abstract
Economic activity consumes large amounts of energy, making modern economies especially vulnerable to energy price shocks. Following such a shock, firms can adjust by reducing output or energy used per unit of output. Here we use annual panel data for the 50 US States to examine how local industries have adapted to energy price changes from 2001 to 2019. We estimate a recursive dynamic system to model how energy prices affect output both directly and indirectly through induced capital adjustment and energy intensity. We find that energy price increases reduce local GDP in the short run but also lead to long-term increases in energy efficiency. Output contracts in the short run, but dynamic efficiency gains mitigate these losses: on average, reduced energy intensity offsets between 2% to 5% of the short run decline in GDP. We interpret these dynamics as evidence of induced efficiency adaptation via capital accumulation at the state level, which decouples energy consumption from economic growth as energy prices rise.
