2026-09-24 アリゾナ大学
＜関連情報＞
- https://news.arizona.edu/news/satellite-data-exposes-escalating-boom-and-bust-dynamic-greening-drylands
- https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-026-02733-7
緑化は乾燥地の安定性喪失を覆い隠す Greening masks stability loss in drylands
Wen Zhang, David J. P. Moore, Yang Li, Natasha MacBean, Andrew F. Feldman, Christopher R. Schwalm, Yanghui Kang, Julia K. Green, Benjamin Poulter, Mostafa Javadian, Russell L. Scott, Zexi Shen, Youngryel Ryu, Sungchan Jeong, Sasha C. Reed & William K. Smith
Nature Climate Change Published:10 September 2026
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-026-02733-7
Abstract
Drylands are already undergoing large-scale change due to climate change, yet understanding of this response remains limited by observational gaps, conflicting satellite records and substantial model uncertainty. Here, considering trends and interannual variability based on leaf area index (LAI), we show persistent (1982–2020) greening across global drylands and increasing interannual variability. Greening rates are higher than current dynamic global vegetation models and contradict reports of a recent greening slowdown. The interannual variability increase is spatially coherent, covering about 82% of global drylands, and is characterized by increasing LAI maxima and declining minima. Increasing rainfall sensitivity is the dominant driver of increasing variability with both inter- and intraannual rainfall variability acting as secondary drivers. The dynamic global vegetation models analysed cannot reproduce increasing variability and divergent LAI trajectories. Rising variability may indicate eminent state transitions that could intensify carbon cycle uncertainty and disrupt key dryland ecosystem services.
