2026-09-23 ワシントン大学（UW）
＜関連情報＞
- https://www.washington.edu/news/2026/09/23/past-emissions-from-top-polluters-will-continue-warming-the-planet-for-decades-to-come/
- https://journals.plos.org/climate/article?id=10.1371/journal.pclm.0001036
炭素排出量の多い主要国による数世紀にわたる地球温暖化：将来の排出経路への依存 Centuries of global heating from Carbon Majors: Dependence on future emissions pathways
Dargan M. W. Frierson,Lauren A. Henrie
PLOS Climate Published: September 23, 2026
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0001036
Abstract
A range of recent studies have developed methods and data to attribute past and present global temperature change to individual emitters. We perform simulations that attribute the amount of global warming due to corporations, governments and other entities into the future. We utilize the Finite Amplitude Impulse Response (FaIR) model run until 2500, and the Carbon Majors dataset, a database with the emissions history associated with the top 178 oil, gas, coal, and cement producers. We perform counterfactual experiments to calculate the warming attributable to the emissions associated with these entities, using several different future emissions scenarios. The future atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) anomaly attributable to a company’s past emissions is smaller with less ensemble spread in a lower emissions future than it is in a high emissions future. This is due to smaller carbon cycle feedbacks with lower emissions. However, the temperature change from past emissions is larger in a lower emissions future, even with the smaller change in CO2. This is due primarily to the logarithmic sensitivity of CO2 radiative forcing to concentration. Methane concentration post-2080 experiences a negative anomaly, due to a decrease in methane lifetime from elevated temperature, which is a small negative feedback. For any future emissions scenario, the historical emissions from oil, gas, coal, and cement producers affect many aspects of the climate system, including CO2 in the atmosphere and other parts of the carbon cycle, methane, ozone, and stratospheric water vapor. The total radiative forcing induced by these elements stays positive throughout all simulations, which in turn causes positive temperature perturbations. Thus in addition to the damages that have already occurred, we expect the Carbon Majors to be responsible for calculable climate damages for many centuries into the future.
