2026-07-13 中国科学院（CAS）
＜関連情報＞
- https://english.cas.cn/newsroom/research-news/202607/t20260713_1177197.shtml
- https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0022169426007924
中国最大の内陸河川流域における氷河ピーク水位に対する水文学的応答 Hydrological response to glacier peak water in the largest inland river basin of China
Haodong Lyu, Gonghuan Fang, Yaning Chen, Wenting Liang, Lei Wang, Jianmin Qiao, Man Chen, Xiaolong Yan, Ruoyan Li, Shiru Han
Journal of Hydrology Available online: 17 May 2026
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135695
Abstract
Glacier meltwater is crucial for river runoff in highly glacierized basins; however, whether total runoff will decline after the peak of glacier runoff remains unclear at the basin scale. To address this, we projected monthly and daily runoff for seven headwaters of the glacier-fed inland Tarim River using an attention-enhanced LSTM model for reliable long-term performance. The results indicate that most headwater catchments are projected to experience increasing runoff during the 21st century under SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585, whereas changes under SSP126 are generally weak and spatially heterogeneous. For the late 21st century (2071–2100), runoff in the southern Tianshan Mountains is projected to increase by 10% and 21% in the Aksu River under SSP245 and SSP585, and by 11% and 18% in the Kaidu River. Larger increases are projected for the northern slope of the Kunlun Mountains, with increases of 64% and 55% in the Yarkant River, and 74% and 185% in the Hotan River under SSP245 and SSP585, respectively, relative to the 2000–2014 baseline. Passing the glacier peak water does not necessarily lead to an immediate outlet runoff decline, despite the significant contribution of glaciers. The annual river runoff was projected to increase by 8.48% and by 14.40% during and after peak water periods, respectively, compared to the period before peak water.
