降雨履歴が大気汚染予測に重要であることを発見(Air Quality: Rainfall History Matters as Much as Where the Air Came From)

2026-06-17 ミシガン大学

米国ミシガン大学の研究チームは、大気中の粒子状物質(エアロゾル)の濃度や組成を決定する要因として、空気塊がどこから来たかだけでなく、その空気が移動中にどのような降雨を経験したかが同じくらい重要であることを明らかにした。研究では、大気輸送モデルと観測データを組み合わせて解析し、降雨がエアロゾルを大気中から除去する「湿性沈着(wet deposition)」の影響を詳細に評価した。その結果、同じ発生源地域から到達した空気であっても、移動経路上での降雨履歴の違いによって、最終的な粒子濃度や化学組成が大きく変化することが判明した。従来の大気質予測では空気塊の起源や輸送経路が重視されてきたが、本研究は降雨履歴を考慮することで予測精度が大幅に向上する可能性を示している。成果は、大気汚染や気候変動の評価、健康影響予測におけるエアロゾル挙動の理解を深めるものであり、将来の大気環境モデルの改良に重要な知見を提供する。

降雨履歴が大気汚染予測に重要であることを発見(Air Quality: Rainfall History Matters as Much as Where the Air Came From)
A cloud water collection system set up outside of the Lakes of the Clouds hut, maintained by the Appalachian Mountain Club. As clouds pass over the mountain, water condenses on the strings and filters into collection vials. Cloud and rainwater samples collected here over 19 summers helped researchers understand how upwind rain impacts air quality. Image credit: Adriana Bailey, Michigan Engineering.

<関連情報>

ニューハンプシャー州ワシントン山における雲と雨の汚染濃度に対する発生源と降水の影響の分離 Separating Source and Precipitation Effects on Cloud and Rain Pollution Concentrations on Mount Washington, NH

Lauren Richards, Adriana Bailey, Georgia Murray, Eric Kelsey
Earth and Space Science  Published: 15 May 2026
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EA004888

Abstract

Precipitation processes are critical for removing pollutants from the atmosphere, yet in many mid-latitude continental regions, the effects of rainout are difficult to distinguish from the broader influence of atmospheric transport. In this study, we analyze 582 cloud and rain samples collected during summers 1996–2014 from Mount Washington, New Hampshire. We use the sulfate ion concentration (SO42−) of each sample as a proxy for anthropogenic pollution loading and the water isotopic composition (δD) as a tracer of the water-cycle history associated with each sample’s air mass. Since the δD signal records both exchange with near-surface air (a source of moisture and pollutants) and rainout, we use it to evaluate how these same source and sink processes influence pollution concentrations. To isolate the effects of rainout from source, we compare the ln(SO42−) variability explained by sample δD with that explained by a more traditional back-trajectory analysis. Using trajectory cluster, sample type (cloud or rain), and time as predictors in a multivariate regression, we explain 40% of the observed ln(SO42−) variability. In comparison, substituting δD for cluster, or using δD and back-trajectory information in combination, increases the explained variance to 51% and 56%, respectively. After accounting for sample type and time, roughly 14% of the remaining variability in ln(SO42−) is due to precipitation effects. These results quantitatively demonstrate the importance of cloud and precipitation processes in determining pollution concentrations during air mass transport.

Plain Language Summary

Precipitation plays a key role in cleaning pollution out of the atmosphere, but it is challenging to determine to what extent this rainout effect matters as air travels from more polluted regions to remote mountain sites. This research examines pollution concentrations in cloud and rain water samples—collected during summers (1996–2014) on Mount Washington, New Hampshire—to evaluate the importance of the rainout effect. We use concentrations of sulfate to represent the amount of pollution in the water samples and the water isotopic composition as an indicator of the combined effects of both the source of atmospheric moisture and how much rain was produced enroute to the mountain site. We also consider the atmospheric pathways the air travels on its way to Mount Washington. We find that the geographic pathway (along with sample date and sample type) explains about 40% of the variation in pollution, but using the water isotope information as an indicator of both moisture source and rainout helps explain more than half. The results suggest that rainout is equally important as source in predicting pollution concentration.

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