2024-03-12 パシフィック・ノースウェスト国立研究所(PNNL)
＜関連情報＞
- https://www.pnnl.gov/publications/researchers-develop-groundbreaking-synthetic-database-tropical-cyclone-events
- https://www.nature.com/articles/s41597-024-02952-7
北大西洋の低気圧・サイクロンの進路・強度・降水量のデータセット A North Atlantic synthetic tropical cyclone track, intensity, and rainfall dataset
Wenwei Xu,Karthik Balaguru,David R. Judi,Julian Rice,L. Ruby Leung & Serena Lipari
Scientific Data Published:25 January 2024
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-024-02952-7
Abstract
Tropical Cyclones (TCs) cause significant socio-economic damages to the US and Caribbean coastal regions annually, making it important to understand TC risk at the local-to-regional scales. However, the short length of the observed record and the substantial computational expense associated with high-resolution climate models make it difficult to assess TC risk using either approach. To overcome these challenges, we developed a database of synthetic TCs using the Risk Analysis Framework for Tropical Cyclones (RAFT). The database includes 40,000 synthetic TC tracks, along-track intensities and storm-induced precipitation. TC tracks generated in RAFT are in reasonable agreement with the observed spatial distribution of TC tracks and basin-scale TC statistics. Specifically along the coast, spatial variations in TC crossing probability and extreme winds upon landfall are well-reproduced by RAFT with R-squared values of 0.81 and 0.73, respectively. In summary, the synthetic TC database constructed with RAFT provides a reasonable pathway for the robust assessment of North Atlantic TC wind and rainfall risks.
