2023-10-27 カリフォルニア大学サンディエゴ校(UCSD)
◆しかし、これまでの大規模な海面上昇予測モデルには、南極の氷床からの融水による追加の氷の喪失が含まれていなかったため、現在の予測が今後の数十年における世界の海面上昇のペースを過小評価している可能性があるとのことです。
＜関連情報＞
- https://today.ucsd.edu/story/meltwater-flowing-beneath-antarctic-glaciers-may-be-accelerating-their-retreat
- https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adi9014
デンマン氷河とスコット氷河の将来的な後退を加速する氷河下流出（東南極大陸） Subglacial discharge accelerates future retreat of Denman and Scott Glaciers, East Antarctica
Tyler Pelle,Jamin S. Greenbaum,Christine F. Dow,Adrian Jenkins,and Mathieu Morlighem
Science Advances Published:27 Oct 2023
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adi9014
Abstract
Ice shelf basal melting is the primary mechanism driving mass loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet, yet it is unknown how the localized melt enhancement from subglacial discharge will affect future Antarctic glacial retreat. We develop a parameterization of ice shelf basal melt that accounts for both ocean and subglacial discharge forcing and apply it in future projections of Denman and Scott Glaciers, East Antarctica, through 2300. In forward simulations, subglacial discharge accelerates the onset of retreat of these systems into the deepest continental trench on Earth by 25 years. During this retreat, Denman Glacier alone contributes 0.33 millimeters per year to global sea level rise, comparable to half of the contemporary sea level contribution of the entire Antarctic Ice Sheet. Our results stress the importance of resolving complex interactions between the ice, ocean, and subglacial environments in future Antarctic Ice Sheet projections.
