2023-05-05 米国国立再生可能エネルギー研究所(NREL)
◆研究者らは、シリコンやカドミウムテルライドを使用する成熟技術のコストが引き続き低下することを期待しながら、PVモジュールの製造能力を拡大する必要があると指摘している。また、既存技術と革新的技術を組み合わせたタンデム光電池など、新技術の導入により、発電コストをさらに削減できると分析されている。
◆技術革新が実現できれば、数千億ドルにもなるメーカーのコスト削減が実現される可能性があるとしている。
＜関連情報＞
- https://www.nrel.gov/news/program/2023/analysis-points-to-massive-photovoltaic-deployment-to-meet-decarbonization-target.html
- https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/solr.202300102
世界の脱炭素化に向けた太陽光発電の導入シナリオ： 技術革新がもたらす役割 Photovoltaic Deployment Scenarios toward Global Decarbonization: Role of Disruptive Technologies
Billy J. Stanbery, Michael Woodhouse, Jao van de Lagemaat
Solar RRL Published: 07 April 2023
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1002/solr.202300102
Abstract
To totally decarbonize global electrical systems using photovoltaics (PVs) in the 2050–2060 decade, the world would need to install 63.4 TW of PV. This article models and explores how a PV manufacturing ramp-up trajectory toward this goal can be achieved while assuming that investors continue to make financially rational decisions avoiding stranded production assets and therefore protecting their return on investment. The model effectively exploits experience curve benefits in both the scaling of the manufacturing process and continued progress in product design technologies. The scale-up challenge is amplified because trajectories that achieve this goal require an unprecedented ramp-up of production capacity over just two decades, followed by relatively modest demand to maintain the installed base and support continued population growth. It is demonstrated that sustainable ramp-up of manufacturing is indeed possible and shown that the deployment of the requisite manufacturing capacity can be accelerated and accomplished at lower total capital cost by the introduction of disruptive technologies that have lower capital intensity, embedded energy, or higher efficiency.
