植物由来食への移行が農業と労働に与える影響を分析（Global shift towards plant-based diets could reshape farming jobs and reduce labour costs worldwide, Oxford study finds）

2025-11-04 オックスフォード大学

オックスフォード大学環境変動研究所の研究によると、植物中心の食生活への世界的移行は、農業労働構造と雇用に大きな変化をもたらす可能性がある。179か国の労働データと食料生産モデルを統合した結果、2030年までに畜産需要の減少により世界の農業労働需要が5〜28％（約1億人規模）減少する一方、果物・野菜など園芸部門で最大5,600万人の新規雇用が生まれると推計。労働コストは年間最大9,950億ドル削減され、効率性向上が期待されるが、地域格差に配慮した公正な移行政策が必要とされる。再教育・再配置・農業投資が鍵となる。

＜関連情報＞

世界、地域、国レベルでの健康的で持続可能な食生活に必要な労働力：モデリング研究 Labour requirements for healthy and sustainable diets at global, regional, and national levels: a modelling study

Yiorgos Vittis, PhD ∙ Prof Michael Obersteiner, PhD ∙ Prof H Charles J Godfray, PhD ∙ Prof Marco Springmann, PhD
The Lancet Planetary Health Published: October 2025
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101342

Summary

Background

Major changes in diets and food systems will be required to limit climate change and meet the Sustainable Development Goals, while providing healthy diets to a growing population. Among others, these changes include what foods are being produced and where, which has implications for the quarter of labourers currently employed in agriculture globally. We estimated the labour requirements for agricultural (primary) production associated with healthy and sustainable diets at global, regional, and national levels.

Methods

We constructed an inventory of agricultural labour requirements per food and region based on farm-level estimates and paired it with a set of diet and food-system scenarios. The scenarios included changes to a set of healthy and sustainable dietary patterns, including flexitarian, pescatarian, vegetarian, and vegan dietary patterns. We combined the inventory of labour requirements with a biophysical input–output model of the global food system to trace how changes in food consumption would affect changes in food production and the associated labour requirements for 20 food groups in 179 countries.

Findings

We found that transitions towards healthy and sustainable food systems could lead to substantial changes in the amount and distribution of agricultural labour. Compared with estimates of food demand in 2030 under a business-as-usual scenario, adopting more plant-based dietary patterns was associated with global reductions in labour requirements ranging from 5% for flexitarian and pescatarian diets to 22–28% for vegetarian and vegan diets. Reductions were strongest in countries currently dominated by livestock production, but a quarter to half of countries showed increased labour requirements to meet increased horticultural demand for fruits and vegetables. The changes in labour requirements were associated with global reductions in labour costs of 0·2–0·6% of gross domestic product annually.