人類の海洋への影響が2050年までに倍増する見込み(Human impact on the ocean will double by 2050, UCSB scientists warn)

2025-09-04 カリフォルニア大学サンタバーバラ校(UCSB)

カリフォルニア大学サンタバーバラ校の研究で、人間活動が海洋に与える影響が2050年までに現在の約2倍に達する可能性が示された。気候変動、漁業資源の減少、海面上昇、酸性化、栄養汚染など複数の要因が重なり、熱帯・極地・沿岸部で特に深刻化すると予測される。研究はNCEASのベン・ハルパーン教授らが開発した包括的モデルに基づき、短期間での急激な影響拡大を示した。沿岸地域や海洋資源に依存する社会・産業への打撃が懸念される一方、気候変動対策、持続可能な漁業管理、マングローブや塩沼地など沿岸生態系の保全強化が負荷軽減の有効策とされる。研究者は「これは処方箋ではなく警告」であり、将来予測は政策立案の重要な基盤になると強調している。

人類の海洋への影響が2050年までに倍増する見込み(Human impact on the ocean will double by 2050, UCSB scientists warn)
Eutrophication — caused by excessive nutrients, such as fertilizer runoff — causes a bloom of algae that depletes the water of oxygen and causes ‘dead zones’ that kill fish and other marine organisms

<関連情報>

世界の海洋生態系への累積的影響は、2050年までに2倍以上に増加すると予測されている Cumulative impacts to global marine ecosystems projected to more than double by midcentury

Benjamin S. Halpern, Melanie Frazier, Casey C. O’Hara, O. Alejandra Vargas-Fonseca, and Amanda T. Lombard
Science  Published:4 Sep 2025
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adv2906

Abstract

Pressures from human activities are expected to increase significantly, impacting marine ecosystems globally. To plan for a sustainable future, we need to forecast distributions of cumulative impacts from multiple pressures. Here we mapped (10km resolution) future cumulative impacts of ten climate, land-based, fishing and other pressures on twenty marine habitats under two climate scenarios at midcentury (~2050). We found cumulative impacts are projected to increase 2.2 to 2.6 times globally, with coastal habitats facing higher impacts but offshore regions facing faster increases, especially in equatorial regions. Furthermore, many countries dependent on marine resources will have large increases in impacts. Incorporating these results into strategic policy and management will support more sustainable use and protection of marine ecosystems and the services provided to people.

 

海洋生態系に対する人間の影響のグローバルマップ A Global Map of Human Impact on Marine Ecosystems

Benjamin S. Halpern, Shaun Walbridge, Kimberly A. Selkoe, Carrie V. Kappel, […] , and Reg Watson
Science  Published:15 Feb 2008
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1149345

Abstract

The management and conservation of the world’s oceans require synthesis of spatial data on the distribution and intensity of human activities and the overlap of their impacts on marine ecosystems. We developed an ecosystem-specific, multiscale spatial model to synthesize 17 global data sets of anthropogenic drivers of ecological change for 20 marine ecosystems. Our analysis indicates that no area is unaffected by human influence and that a large fraction (41%) is strongly affected by multiple drivers. However, large areas of relatively little human impact remain, particularly near the poles. The analytical process and resulting maps provide flexible tools for regional and global efforts to allocate conservation resources; to implement ecosystem-based management; and to inform marine spatial planning, education, and basic research.

 

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