気候変動の影響を定量化する新しい方法 “屋外の日々”(A new way to quantify climate change impacts: “Outdoor days”)

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2024-03-22 マサチューセッツ工科大学(MIT)

気候変動の影響を定量化する新しい方法 “屋外の日々”(A new way to quantify climate change impacts: “Outdoor days”)
A new measure of rising temperatures, called “outdoor days,” describes the number of days per year that outdoor temperatures are neither too hot nor too cold for people to go about normal outdoor activities, whether work or leisure, in reasonable comfort. Credit: iStock

MITの研究者たちは、気候変動の影響を把握するために新しい指標「アウトドア・デイズ」を開発しました。この指標は、屋外活動が快適な温度範囲内で行える日数を示し、気温上昇が世界各地で異なる影響をもたらすことを示しています。北部地域ではアウトドア・デイズが増加する一方で、南部地域では減少する傾向が強く、特に南部の国々が影響を受けることが示されました。この新しい指標は、気候変動の影響を個々のレベルで可視化し、地球規模の課題に対処するための決定を支援することが期待されます。

<関連情報>

気候変動が “屋外日数 “に与える影響の南北格差 North-South disparity in impact of climate change on “outdoor days”

Yeon-Woo Choi,Muhammad Khalifa, and Elfatih A. B. Eltahir
Journal of Climate  Published:18 Mar 2024
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0346.1

Abstract

Here, we introduce the concept of “outdoor days” to describe how climate change can affect quality of life for different communities and individuals. An outdoor day is characterized by moderate temperature, neither too cold nor too hot, allowing most people to enjoy outdoor activities. The number of “outdoor days” is a non-linear function of the daily surface air temperature. If the latter falls within a specific range describing assumed thermal comfort conditions, then we assign that day as an “outdoor day”. Using this function, we describe climate change impacts on temperature differently compared to other studies which often describe these impacts in terms of the linear averaging of daily surface air temperature. The introduction of this new concept offers another way for communicating how climate change may impact the quality of life for individuals who usually plan their outdoor activities based on how local weather conditions compare to their preferred levels of thermal comfort.

Based on our analysis of regional variations in “outdoor days”, we present observational and modeling evidence of a north-south disparity in climate change impacts. Under highemission scenarios, CMIP5 and CMIP6 models project fewer “outdoor days” for people living in developing countries, primarily located in low-latitude regions. Meanwhile, developed countries in middle- and high-latitude regions could gain more “outdoor days”, redistributed across seasons.

1900環境一般
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