サンゴの病気は、過去25年間で3倍に増えた。来世紀には4分の3が病気になる可能性が高い(Coral disease tripled in 25 years. Three-quarters will likely be diseased by next century)

2023-06-082023-08-27

2023-06-07 ニューサウスウェールズ大学(UNSW)

◆新たな研究によると、地球温暖化により致命的なサンゴの病気が広がり、次世紀までには世界中のサンゴ礁に広がる可能性が高いということがわかりました。
◆この研究は、気候変動がサンゴの健康に及ぼす影響を示し、サンゴ礁の生息地全体を壊滅させ、沿岸コミュニティに甚大な被害をもたらすおそれがあることを示しています。
◆海洋温暖化がサンゴの病気の広まりに影響を与えていることが明らかになりました。この状況は、サンゴ礁生態系が直面している脅威の複雑さを示し、気候変動を緩和するための迅速な行動の必要性を強調しています。

＜関連情報＞

気温上昇がサンゴの病気の流行に与える影響とその予測可能性：世界的なメタアナリシス The impact of rising temperatures on the prevalence of coral diseases and its predictability: A global meta-analysis

Samantha Burke, Patrice Pottier, Malgorzata Lagisz, Erin L. Macartney, Tracy Ainsworth, Szymon M. Drobniak, Shinichi Nakagawa
Ecology Letters Published: 06 June 2023
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.14266

Abstract

Coral reefs are under threat from disease as climate change alters environmental conditions. Rising temperatures exacerbate coral disease, but this relationship is likely complex as other factors also influence coral disease prevalence. To better understand this relationship, we meta-analytically examined 108 studies for changes in global coral disease over time alongside temperature, expressed using average summer sea surface temperature (SST) and cumulative heat stress as weekly sea surface temperature anomalies (WSSTAs). We found that both rising average summer SST and WSSTA were associated with global increases in the mean and variability in coral disease prevalence. Global coral disease prevalence tripled, reaching 9.92% in the 25 years examined, and the effect of ‘year’ became more stable (i.e. prevalence has lower variance over time), contrasting the effects of the two temperature stressors. Regional patterns diverged over time and differed in response to average summer SST. Our model predicted that, under the same trajectory, 76.8% of corals would be diseased globally by 2100, even assuming moderate average summer SST and WSSTA. These results highlight the need for urgent action to mitigate coral disease. Mitigating the impact of rising ocean temperatures on coral disease is a complex challenge requiring global discussion and further study.