2026-08-03 バージニア工科大学（Virginia Tech）
＜関連情報＞
- https://news.vt.edu/articles/2026/07/eng-cee-storm-surge.html
- https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0378383926001407
熱帯低気圧の高潮の発達特性 Characterization of tropical cyclone surge evolution
Atefeh Alipour, Jennifer L. Irish, Robert Weiss, David F. Muñoz
Coastal Engineering Available online: 10 June 2026
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2026.105086
Highlights
- Identified eight classes of tropical cyclone surge hydrographs.
- Along the U.S. Gulf coast, surge evolution is typically right-skewed to symmetric.
- Along the U.S. Atlantic coast, surge evolution is typically left-skewed.
- Surge patterns relate qualitatively to storm track characteristics.
Abstract
Storm surge, the rise in sea level driven by strong winds and low pressure during tropical cyclones, is a major cause of coastal flooding and infrastructure damage. Understanding its temporal evolution is critical for improving risk mitigation, particularly along low-lying, densely developed U.S. coasts. This study applies an unsupervised clustering algorithm (K-means clustering) to identify and characterize surge evolution patterns using two decades of high-fidelity ADCIRC hindcasts. Key surge parameters were extracted from thousands of simulated surge hydrographs along the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico (hereafter called Gulf) coasts. Eight normalized, physically interpretable hydrograph types were identified, ranging from fast-rising, right-skewed events to prolonged surges with delayed peaks. The classification and storm track analysis attest to the meaningful regional and physical surge patterns. The Gulf coast exhibited the highest diversity and frequency of surge types, mostly represented by right-skewed and symmetric hydrographs. In contrast, the Atlantic coast showed fewer but more spatially variable surge patterns, with greater representation of left-skewed surges. Analysis of storm characteristics showed that storm size, translation speed, approach angle, proximity to peak time, and bathymetric slope interactively modulate surge evolution, though no single factor alone explains the surge pattern variability. These findings establish a framework for advancing the understanding of tropical cyclone surge evolution along U.S. coastlines and provide a basis for linking storm and coastal dynamics with surge evolution patterns. The identified normalized surge hydrographs can serve as scalable templates for simplified surge synthesis, hazard modeling, and risk assessment to support more resilient coastal management strategies.
