越境汚染を考慮した気候政策が健康不平等を改善 (Climate policy must consider cross-border pollution exchanges to address inequality and achieve health benefits, research finds)

2026-02-12 カーディフ大学

カーディフ大学の研究によると、気候政策は国境を越える大気汚染の移動を考慮しなければ、不平等の是正や健康改善効果を十分に達成できない可能性がある。各国の排出削減が他国の大気質や健康被害に影響を与える「越境汚染」の実態をモデル分析した結果、先進国の消費に伴う排出が国外で健康負担を生んでいる構図が明らかになった。公平で効果的な政策には、消費ベース排出の視点や国際協調を組み込む必要があると指摘している。

越境汚染を考慮した気候政策が健康不平等を改善 (Climate policy must consider cross-border pollution exchanges to address inequality and achieve health benefits, research finds)
The study focuses on the impact of fine particulate matter (PM2.5), exposure to which is the leading environmental risk factor for premature deaths globally.

<関連情報>

国家の気候変動対策は、国際的な大気汚染の不平等を改善、永続、または悪化させる可能性がある National climate action can ameliorate, perpetuate, or exacerbate international air pollution inequalities

M. Omar Nawaz & Daven K. Henze
Nature Communications  Published:26 January 2026
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-68827-0

We are providing an unedited version of this manuscript to give early access to its findings. Before final publication, the manuscript will undergo further editing. Please note there may be errors present which affect the content, and all legal disclaimers apply.

Abstract

Climate action ameliorates public health by reducing hazardous air pollutants alongside greenhouse gases, yet misguided mitigation efforts could induce imbalances in air pollution exchange across international borders. Despite its potential to endanger equality, the effects from climate action on transboundary air pollution are relatively unstudied. Here we show that stricter mitigation increases the fraction of co-benefits that originate externally in Africa by +8% in shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) towards sustainability (SSP1) and by +53% for fragmentation (SSP3). The fraction of externally originating co-benefits is greater in developing countries (0.76 in SSP1-26) than developed (0.65), indicating that developing countries are more dependent on external action. Although co-benefits are maximized in the most ambitious scenario, SSP1-19 (1.32 million deaths avoided), their transboundary exchange between countries varies. These results suggest a need for climate policies that consider how inequalities in transboundary air pollution evolve across distinct socioeconomic trends and mitigation strategies in addition to total co-benefit estimates.

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