熱帯低気圧の画期的な合成データベースを開発(Researchers Develop Groundbreaking Synthetic Database of Tropical Cyclone Events)

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2024-03-12 パシフィック・ノースウェスト国立研究所(PNNL)

大西洋の熱帯低気圧(TC)は莫大な被害をもたらすが、そのリスクを地域レベルで理解することは難しい。この問題に対処するため、科学者たちは物理学、単純な数学、そして高度なコンピューティング(ディープニューラルネットワーク)を組み合わせた新しいアプローチを開発し、熱帯低気圧の合成記録を作成した。この革新的なモデルは、大西洋の熱帯低気圧の振る舞いをより豊かで詳細に捉えるものであり、災害リスク分析や防災対策の向上に貢献する可能性がある。

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北大西洋の低気圧・サイクロンの進路・強度・降水量のデータセット A North Atlantic synthetic tropical cyclone track, intensity, and rainfall dataset

Wenwei Xu,Karthik Balaguru,David R. Judi,Julian Rice,L. Ruby Leung & Serena Lipari
Scientific Data  Published:25 January 2024
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-024-02952-7

熱帯低気圧の画期的な合成データベースを開発(Researchers Develop Groundbreaking Synthetic Database of Tropical Cyclone Events)

Abstract

Tropical Cyclones (TCs) cause significant socio-economic damages to the US and Caribbean coastal regions annually, making it important to understand TC risk at the local-to-regional scales. However, the short length of the observed record and the substantial computational expense associated with high-resolution climate models make it difficult to assess TC risk using either approach. To overcome these challenges, we developed a database of synthetic TCs using the Risk Analysis Framework for Tropical Cyclones (RAFT). The database includes 40,000 synthetic TC tracks, along-track intensities and storm-induced precipitation. TC tracks generated in RAFT are in reasonable agreement with the observed spatial distribution of TC tracks and basin-scale TC statistics. Specifically along the coast, spatial variations in TC crossing probability and extreme winds upon landfall are well-reproduced by RAFT with R-squared values of 0.81 and 0.73, respectively. In summary, the synthetic TC database constructed with RAFT provides a reasonable pathway for the robust assessment of North Atlantic TC wind and rainfall risks.

1702地球物理及び地球化学
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