2023-04-06 チャルマース工科大学
世界が2度以下の温度上昇に保つためには、中国やインドなどの主要国が、5年以内に英国よりも速いペースで石炭の使用を段階的に減らす必要があり、国際政策によって不公平を解決する必要があるとされている。
＜関連情報＞
- https://news.cision.com/chalmers/r/moving-towards-3-degrees-of-warming—the-phasing-out-of-coal-is-too-slow,c3748411
- https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/acadf6
2℃の目標達成のためには、安全性と公平性の懸念にもかかわらず、最も野心的な国家計画を世界的に再現する必要がある。 Phasing out coal for 2 °C target requires worldwide replication of most ambitious national plans despite security and fairness concerns
Vadim Vinichenko,Marta Vetier, Jessica Jewell, Lola Nacke and Aleh Cherp
Environmental Research Letters Published 11 January 2023
DOI :10.1088/1748-9326/acadf6
Abstract
Ending the use of unabated coal power is a key climate change mitigation measure. However, we do not know how fast it is feasible to phase-out coal on the global scale. Historical experience of individual countries indicates feasible coal phase-out rates, but can these be upscaled to the global level and accelerated by deliberate action? To answer this question, we analyse 72 national coal power phase-out pledges and show that these pledges have diffused to more challenging socio-economic contexts and now cover 17% of the global coal power fleet, but their impact on emissions (up to 4.8 Gt CO2 avoided by 2050) remains small compared to what is needed for achieving Paris climate targets. We also show that the ambition of pledges is similar across countries and broadly in line with historical precedents of coal power decline. While some pledges strengthen over time, up to 10% have been weakened by the energy crisis caused by the Russo-Ukrainian war. We construct scenarios of coal power decline based on empirically-grounded assumptions about future diffusion and ambition of coal phase-out policies. We show that under these assumptions unabated coal power generation in 2022–2050 would be between the median generation in 2 °C-consistent IPCC AR6 pathways and the third quartile in 2.5 °C-consistent pathways. More ambitious coal phase-out scenarios require much stronger effort in Asia than in OECD countries, which raises fairness and equity concerns. The majority of the 1.5 °C- and 2 °C-consistent IPCC pathways envision even more unequal distribution of effort and faster coal power decline in India and China than has ever been historically observed in individual countries or pledged by climate leaders.
