2026-08-19 カリフォルニア大学サンタバーバラ校（UCSB）
Photo Credit: Yoshihiro Nakayama
The Totten Ice Shelf contributes to ice loss in East Antarctica, but this was offset by the increased snowfall from 2021 to 2023.
＜関連情報＞
- https://news.ucsb.edu/2026/022759/antarcticas-brief-rebound-was-caused-climate-variability-not-new-normal?utm_source=chatgpt.com
- https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-026-10912-x
数年にわたる熱帯温暖水域の温暖化が南極の質量減少の減速を引き起こす Multiyear tropical warm pool warming drives slowdown in Antarctic mass loss
Yunhe Wang,Qinghua Ding,Xiaofeng Li,Thomas J. Ballinger,Yoshihiro Nakayama,Dániel Topál & Eric J. Steig
Nature Published:19 August 2026
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-026-10912-x
Abstract
Antarctic mass loss has been a major contributor to global sea-level rise for most of the last few decades, mainly driven by West Antarctica1. During 2021–2023, however, a sharp increase in surface mass balance over Queen Mary Land and Wilkes Land in East Antarctica offset West Antarctic loss and slowed the rate of total ice mass loss2,3. Although this slowdown is consistent with the expected long-term precipitation response to global warming through poleward-shifted storm tracks and Antarctic moistening4, our results point to a different mechanism. Here we show that the recent ice mass gain was linked to a recurrent atmospheric teleconnection driven by sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical warm pool, which experienced unusually persistent warming from 2021 to 2023 relative to the previous two decades. On the basis of observations and model experiments, we find that tropical warm pool warming excites a poleward-propagating Rossby-wave train that induces a high-pressure anomaly over East Antarctica, enhancing Queen Mary Land and Wilkes Land precipitation and driving the observed mass gain, with moisture primarily sourced from the mid-latitude Indian Ocean. Similar multiyear warming in the tropical warm pool recurs about once per decade in observations and historical simulations, and its influence on precipitation is distinct from the effects of global warming. Therefore, the recent Antarctic Ice Sheet mass gain is probably temporary and does not yet reflect a sustained, global-warming-driven moistening of Antarctica.
