新技術のリスクを事前に予測する手法を開発(Anticipating the risks of new technologies)

2026-03-31 ミュンヘン大学(LMU)

ミュンヘン大学(LMU)の研究チームは、新技術の潜在的リスクを事前に予測する「Cassandra法」を開発した。この手法は、過去の技術導入に伴うリスク事例を体系的に分析し、それらのパターンを新技術に適用することで、将来起こり得る問題を早期に特定することを目的とする。特に社会的・倫理的影響や安全性の課題に焦点を当て、専門家の知見とデータ分析を組み合わせて評価を行う。これにより、技術革新とリスク管理の両立を図り、政策立案や技術開発の意思決定を支援する新たな枠組みとして期待される。

新技術のリスクを事前に予測する手法を開発(Anticipating the risks of new technologies)
The Cassandra method can be used to identify potential negative effects of digital technologies on users as early as the design phase.© Sarah Diefenbach

<関連情報>

カサンドラ法:ディストピア的ビジョンを活用して、責任あるHCI設計と評価を行う The Cassandra Method: Using Dystopian Visions to Inform Responsible HCI Design and Evaluation

Daniel Ullrich, Eva Bischoff, Sarah Diefenbach
OZCHI ’25: Proceedings of the 37th Australian Conference on Human-Computer Interaction  Published: 28 November 2025
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1145/3764687.3764710

Abstract

Technological innovations often have unforeseen side effects, or even detrimental consequences. To help anticipate and address such effects during the design and product conception process, we propose the Cassandra method, using dystopian storytelling to encourage critical thinking and ultimately more responsible design. Taking inspiration from Greek mythology, where Cassandra could foresee negative future developments but her prophecies were not heeded, our method encourages participants to adopt Cassandra’s perspective and engage in critical reflection in a playful manner. The method is usually carried out in a workshop setting during the concept development phase. We present the method procedure and related tools, such as a manual, card set and diagram. Pilot applications with start-ups have shown promising results. In light of ongoing innovations based on AI and emerging technologies in HCI, Cassandra is a valuable addition to the range of methods, further establishing systematic critical reflection as a hallmark of quality.

 

カサンドラ・メソッド:ディストピア的ビジョンを基盤とした責任あるデザイン The Cassandra Method: Dystopian Visions as a Basis for Responsible Design

Sarah Diefenbach and Daniel Ullrich
Engineering Proceedings  Published: 27 June 2024
DOI:https://doi.org/10.3390/engproc2024068002

Abstract

Innovative technologies often have unforeseen negative consequences on an individual, societal, or environmental level. To minimize these, the Cassandra method aims to foresee such negative effects by systematically investigating dystopian visions. Starting with the activation of a (self-)critical mindset, the next steps are collecting a maximum number of negative effects and assessing their relevance. Finally, the envisioned impairments are used to improve the product concepts in a responsible way. This paper broadly outlines the method, its applications during product development and research, and reports on experiences from an expert workshop.

2100総合技術監理一般
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