2025-06-18 マックス・プランク研究所
© Lara Wallberg
＜関連情報＞
- https://www.mpg.de/24671106/heatwave-summer-prediction
- https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2024GL111895
10年ごとの北大西洋の熱蓄積を考慮することで、ヨーロッパの夏の異常な暖かさがより正確に予測される Anomalously Warm European Summers Predicted More Accurately by Considering Sub-Decadal North Atlantic Ocean Heat Accumulation
Lara Wallberg, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Daniela Matei, Daniel Krieger, Wolfgang A. Müller
Geophysical Research Letters Published: 05 May 2025
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL111895
Abstract
Focusing on predicting anomalously warm temperatures in Europe, this study delves into a coupled mechanism within the North Atlantic ocean. By examining the accumulation of heat in the North Atlantic ocean, we unveil its potential for forecasting extreme European summers several years in advance. Through a novel ensemble selection approach that integrates this mechanism, we evaluate its impact on decadal temperature prediction skill. Our analysis demonstrates significant enhancements in both deterministic and probabilistic predictions of Central European summer temperature extremes over multiple lead years. These findings underscore the value of incorporating sub-decadal oceanic processes into climate prediction methodologies, offering critical insights for mitigation strategies against the impacts of anomalous heat events.
Key Points
- We link the occurrence of anomalously warm European summers to sub-decadal North Atlantic ocean heat accumulation within a decadal prediction system
- Our novel ensemble selection technique notably increases the prediction skill of anomalously warm European summers several years in advance
- We present a powerful tool that can be applied to operational climate predictions on both interannual and sub-decadal timescales
Plain Language Summary
The occurrence of extremely warm summers in Europe has increased dramatically in recent years, and this trend is expected to continue as global temperatures rise. These anomalous heat events have significant impacts on society and the economy. It would be very helpful if we could predict these high-impact events reliably and accurately several years in advance to minimize their potential consequences. In another study, we found that the heat buildup in the North Atlantic ocean plays a crucial role for the prediction skill of anomalously warm European summers. We discovered that the accumulation of heat in the North Atlantic ocean precedes these anomalous events by several years. By using this storage of heat in the North Atlantic ocean, we improve the ability to accurately predict anomalously warm European summers.
