「バタフライ効果」の新たな警告— 逆説的(New warnings of a ‘Butterfly Effect’ — in reverse)

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2025-03-31 イェール大学

イェール大学の研究によると、熱帯・亜熱帯の山岳地帯に生息する蝶の多くが、気候変動により生息地を失い絶滅の危機に直面しています。12,000種以上の蝶を分析した結果、約3分の2が山岳に集中し、これらの地域は低地の3.5倍の生物多様性ホットスポットであることが判明。2070年までに熱帯地域の蝶の64%が適応できる温度範囲を失うと予測され、保全対策の緊急性が強調されています。

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温暖化する世界で蝶の多様性が脅かされる世界的ホットスポット Global hotspots of butterfly diversity are threatened in a warming world

Stefan Pinkert,Nina Farwig,Akito Y. Kawahara & Walter Jetz
Nature Ecology & Evolution  Published:24 March 2025
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-025-02664-0

「バタフライ効果」の新たな警告— 逆説的(New warnings of a ‘Butterfly Effect’ — in reverse)

Abstract

Insects are in decline and threatened by climate change, yet lack of globally comprehensive information limits the understanding and management of this crisis. Here we uncover a strong concentration of butterfly diversity in rare and rapidly shrinking high-elevation climates. Integrating comprehensive phylogenetic and geographic range data for 12,119 species, we find that global centres of butterfly richness, range rarity and phylogenetic diversity are unusually concentrated in tropical and subtropical mountain systems. Two-thirds of the assessed species are primarily mountain dwelling and mountains hold 3.5 times more butterfly hotspots (top 5%) than lowlands. These hotspots only partially overlap with those of ants, terrestrial vertebrates and vascular plants (14–36%), while butterfly diversity is uniquely concentrated above 2,000 m elevation. We project that up to 64% of the temperature niche space of butterflies in tropical realms will erode by 2070, with the geographically restricted temperature conditions of mountains potentially turning these from refugia to traps for butterfly diversity. Our study identifies critical conservation priorities for butterflies and underscores the need for quantitative global assessments of at least select insect groups to help mitigate biodiversity loss in a rapidly warming world.

1900環境一般
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