2024-04-22 カリフォルニア大学バークレー校(UCB)
＜関連情報＞
- https://news.berkeley.edu/2024/04/22/record-breaking-heat-and-humidity-predicted-for-tropics-this-summer
- https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2023GL106990
ENSOの現状から熱帯の年間最大湿球温度を数ヶ月先まで予測する Forecasting Tropical Annual Maximum Wet-Bulb Temperatures Months in Advance From the Current State of ENSO
Yi Zhang, William R. Boos, Isaac Held, Christopher J. Paciorek, Stephan Fueglistaler
Geophysical Research Letters Published: 05 April 2024
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL106990
Abstract
Humid heatwaves, characterized by high temperature and humidity combinations, challenge tropical societies. Extreme wet-bulb temperatures (TW) over tropical land are coupled to the warmest sea surface temperatures by atmospheric convection and wave dynamics. Here, we harness this coupling for seasonal forecasts of the annual maximum of daily maximum TW (TWmax). We develop a multiple linear regression model that explains 80% of variance in tropical mean TWmax and significant regional TWmax variances. The model considers warming trends and El Niño and Southern Oscillation indices. Looking ahead, the strong-to-very-strong El Niño at the end of 2023, with an Oceanic Niño Index of ∼2.0, suggests a 2024 tropical land mean TWmax of 26.2°C (25.9–26.4°C), and a 68% chance (24%–94%) of breaking existing records. This method also predicts regional TWmax in specific areas.
Key Points
- Tropical wet-bulb temperatures (TW) peak around 5 months after El Niño winters
- A multiple linear regression model considering the El Niño-Southern Oscillation index and the long-term warming trend effectively explains TWmax variability
- Our model quantifies the likelihood of strong El Niño and human-induced warming pushing TWmax to record-breaking levels
Plain Language Summary
The heat and humidity in the tropics can be particularly challenging for people to stay comfortable and healthy. This combination of heat and moisture is described using a measure called the wet-bulb temperature (TW). We found that these extremely humid and hot conditions on land can be predicted about 5 months in advance using a physics-based statistical model. The forecast is possible because the peak of El Niño comes before the peak in the warmest sea surface temperatures, which affects the maximum TW on land. This prediction can help tropical societies to better prepare for extreme heat.
