2023-02-27 プリンストン大学
＜関連情報＞
- https://engineering.princeton.edu/news/2023/02/27/one-bad-enough-climate-change-raises-threat-multiple-hurricanes
- https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01595-7
米国東海岸とメキシコ湾岸で増加する連続的な熱帯低気圧の危険性 Increasing sequential tropical cyclone hazards along the US East and Gulf coasts
Dazhi Xi,Ning Lin & Avantika Gori
Nature Climate Change Published:27 February 2023
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-023-01595-7
Abstract
Two tropical cyclones (TCs) that make landfall close together can induce sequential hazards to coastal areas. Here we investigate the change in sequential TC hazards in the historical and future projected climates. We find that the chance of sequential TC hazards has been increasing over the past several decades at many US locations. Under the high (moderate) emission scenario, the chance of hazards from two TCs impacting the same location within 15 days may substantially increase, with the return period decreasing over the century from 10–92 years to ~1–2 (1–3) years along the US East and Gulf coasts, due to sea-level rise and storm climatology change. Climate change can also cause unprecedented compounding of extreme hazards at the regional level. A Katrina-like TC and a Harvey-like TC impacting the United States within 15 days of each other, which is non-existent in the control simulation for over 1,000 years, is projected to have an annual occurrence probability of more than 1% by the end of the century under the high emission scenario.
