2026-01-26 コロンビア大学
＜関連情報＞
- https://news.climate.columbia.edu/2026/01/26/sea-levels-are-rising-but-in-greenland-they-will-fall/
- https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-025-68182-6
21世紀のグリーンランド沿岸の海面低下予測 Projections of 21st-century sea-level fall along coastal Greenland
Lauren Lewright,Jacqueline Austermann,Christopher G. Piecuch,Surendra Adhikari,James L. Davis,Glenn A. Milne & Guy J. G. Paxman
Nature Communications Published:20 January 2026
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-68182-6
Abstract
The Greenland Ice Sheet will significantly contribute to global mean sea-level rise this century. However, glacial isostatic adjustment is expected to cause regional sea-level fall around Greenland as the land rebounds and the gravitational pull of the shrinking ice sheet decreases. A fall in local sea level has implications for Greenlandic communities whose economy, near-shore infrastructure, and food security are vulnerable to coastal changes, and for the dynamics of marine-terminating glaciers. In this study, we use a glacial isostatic model paired with sea-level and vertical land motion observations to predict future sea-level change in this region. We find that local sea level will fall around the island by 2100 CE (relative to 2017 CE) reaching a median value and likely range (17th-83rd percentile) of − 0.9 m [ − 1.2 m to − 0.66 m] and − 2.5 m [ − 3.8 m to − 1.7 m] for Representative Concentration Pathways 2.6 and 8.5, respectively, with viscous effects contributing 20–40% of the predicted local sea-level signal associated with future ice change.
