2025-03-05 中国科学院（CAS）
＜関連情報＞
- https://english.cas.cn/newsroom/research_news/earth/202503/t20250310_903413.shtml
- https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-025-00923-2
大西洋北部におけるハリケーン発生の南方シフト The southward shift of hurricane genesis over the northern Atlantic Ocean
Xi Cao,Renguang Wu,Xianling Jiang,Yifeng Dai,Pengfei Wang,Lei Zhou,Liang Wu,Difei Deng,Ying Sun,Shangfeng Chen,Kaiming Hu,Zhibiao Wang,Lu Liu,Xiaoqing Lan,Zhencai Du,Junhu Zhao & Xiao Xiao
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Published:30 January 2025
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-00923-2
Abstract
The hurricane, with maximum wind speed over 64 kts, is among the most terrible calamities over the northern Atlantic (NATL). Previous studies identified a poleward migration of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis over the Pacific Ocean, but the shift over the NATL is statistically insignificant. The present study detects a robust southward migration in the genesis latitude of NATL TCs that later reach hurricane strength after 1979, which is consistent with a growth in hurricane frequency in the southern part (10°-20°N) of NATL. This increasing trend of hurricane frequency is intimately attributable to the decreasing vertical shear of zonal wind, resulting from a decreasing north-south temperature gradient. The reduced north-south temperature gradient is primarily caused by greater warming trend in tropospheric temperature in the subtropics, driven by intensified static stability. The present research suggests a potential increase in the hazards confronted by low-latitude islands and coastal nations in Northern America.
