2024-10-28 ノースカロライナ州立大学(NCState)
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＜関連情報＞
- https://news.ncsu.edu/2024/10/when-is-a-heat-wave-just-a-heat-wave-and-when-is-it-climate-change/
- https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/2752-5295/ad8028
米国における異常気温現象の原因を評価するための迅速な対応プロセス：プロトタイプとしての2023年テキサス／ルイジアナ熱波 A rapid response process for evaluating causes of extreme temperature events in the United States: the 2023 Texas/Louisiana heat wave as a prototype
Carl James Schreck, David R Easterling, Joseph Barsugli, David A Coates, Andrew Hoell, Nathaniel C Johnson, Kenneth E Kunkel, Zachary Michael Labe, John Uehling, Russell S Vose
Environmental Research: Climate Published:26 September 2024
DOI:10.1088/2752-5295/ad8028
Abstract
As climate attribution studies have become more common, routine processes are now being established for attribution analysis following extreme events. This study describes the prototype process being developed through a collaboration across NOAA, including monitoring tools as well as observational and model-based analysis of causal factors. The prolonged period of extreme heat in summer 2023 over Texas, Louisiana and adjacent areas provided a proving ground for this emerging capability. This event posed unique challenges to the initial process. The extreme heat lasted for most of the summer while most heat wave metrics have been designed for 3–7 day events. The eastern portion of the affected area also occurred within the so-called summer-time daytime warming hole where the warming trend in maximum temperatures has been mitigated wholly or in part by increased precipitation. The extreme temperature coincided with a strong—but not record—precipitation deficit over the region. Both observations and climate model simulations illustrate that the temperatures for a given precipitation deficit have warmed in recent decades. In other words, meteorological droughts today are hotter than their historical analogs providing a stronger attribution to anthropogenic forcing than for temperature alone. These findings were summarized in a prototype plain language report that was distributed to key stakeholders. Based on their feedback, the monitoring and assessment tools will continue to be refined, and the project is exploring other climate model large ensembles to increase the robustness of attribution for future events.
