2026-01-29 スタンフォード大学
＜関連情報＞
- https://news.stanford.edu/stories/2026/01/geothermal-clean-renewable-energy-transition-study-research
- https://woods.stanford.edu/news/heat-deep-underground-could-help-power-global-clean-energy-transition
- https://www.cell.com/cell-reports-sustainability/fulltext/S2949-7906(25)00307-6
The impact of enhanced geothermal systems on transitioning all energy sectors in 150 countries to 100% clean, renewable energy 強化地熱システムが150カ国におけるすべてのエネルギー部門を100％クリーンで再生可能なエネルギーに移行することに与える影響
Mark Z. Jacobson ∙ Daniel J. Sambor ∙ Yuanbei F. Fan ∙ Andreas Mühlbauer ∙ Genevieve C. DiBari
Cell Reports Sustainability Published:January 19, 2026
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crsus.2025.100611
Science for society
Enhanced geothermal systems (EGSs) use heat from deep in the Earth to generate electricity and/or district heat and can thus use heat from many more locations than can conventional geothermal heat, which relies on shallow reservoirs. EGSs are clean, so if they are cost effective, they can help address energy insecurity, air pollution, and climate warming. Here, we calculate that, in future low-, mid-, and high-cost-EGS cases, private and social energy costs of 100% wind-water-solar (WWS) systems with EGS used for electricity are, respectively, lower than, similar to, and higher than costs of 100% WWS with no EGS. Regardless, 100% WWS with or without EGS reduces annual private and social energy costs by ∼60% and ∼90%, respectively, versus a business-as-usual case. With EGS, though, net land requirements decrease, benefiting small countries the most. Thus, EGS is a useful WWS technology that can help reduce air pollution, global warming, and energy insecurity.
Highlights
- Impacts modeled of moving 150 countries to 100% WWS with and without EGS electricity
- WWS cost with EGS may be more or less than without EGS, depending on future EGS cost
- WWS with or without EGS reduces private and social costs ∼60% and ∼90% versus BAU
- EGS reduces land needs, helping small countries most, and storage/generation needs
Summary
Enhanced geothermal systems (EGSs) involve advanced drilling methods for extracting heat from deep in the Earth to generate clean, renewable electricity and/or district heat. Here, we model transitioning 150 countries to 100% wind-water-solar (WWS) systems across all energy sectors after near-full electrification of all sectors and using conventional geothermal and solar heat for the remaining energy, when EGS electricity is excluded versus included as a WWS technology. In low-, mid-, and high-cost-EGS cases, where EGS provides 10% of electricity supply as baseload, WWS-system private energy and social energy costs, respectively, are lower than, similar to, and higher than costs without EGS. Thus, including baseload electricity appears to have little impact on 100%-WWS-system costs. With EGS, net nameplate capacities, land needs, and jobs decrease. Less land benefits small countries the most. With or without EGS, 100% WWS reduces annual private- and social energy costs ∼60% and ∼90%, respectively, versus business-as-usual. Thus, EGS helps a worldwide energy transition.
