大西洋循環のモデル実験をより現実的に:気候シミュレーションの精度向上(More realistic simulations of the Atlantic Overturning Circulation)

2025-12-05 マックス・プランク研究所

地球温暖化により北極圏の氷が溶けて北大西洋に淡水が流入すると、海水の塩分が薄まり、深く沈み込む冷たく塩分の高い水塊の形成が妨げられ、Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) の弱体化や崩壊が懸念されている。これまでの多くの気候モデル研究では、北大西洋全域に一律「淡水を投入する」いわゆる “hosing 実験” によってその影響を調べてきたが、これらは「淡水がどこから、いつ、どのように流入するか」の現実性が低く、誤解を招きやすい。MPI-M の新研究では、淡水流入の「場所・時期・由来」を考慮した新しい解析手法を導入。グリーンランド沿岸各地域を細かく分け、海流・塩分・季節差を考慮したシミュレーションを行ったところ、淡水流入の影響には大きな地域差と季節差があり、従来手法では捉えきれなかった複雑な応答が明らかになった。この「より現実的な淡水投入」を再現するフレームワークは、AMOC の将来予測を改善するうえで重要である。

大西洋循環のモデル実験をより現実的に:気候シミュレーションの精度向上(More realistic simulations of the Atlantic Overturning Circulation)<関連情報>

海洋淡水輸送を研究するための新しい枠組みと、グリーンランド沿岸周辺の淡水の運命モデルを判別するためのその応用 A novel framework for studying oceanic freshwater transports, and its application in discerning the modelled fate of freshwater around the coast of Greenland

Fraser William Goldsworth
Ocean Modelling  Available online: 1 September 2025
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2025.102599

Highlights

  • I describe the freshwater transformation framework.
  • I quantify modelled rates of diahaline mixing around Greenland.
  • I link salinification of boundary currents to surface processes and interior mixing.
  • Diahaline mixing rates are stronger during wintertime than summertime.
  • Diahaline mixing rates are weaker in areas with high sea-ice cover.

Abstract

In the sub-polar North Atlantic, the accumulation of fresh meltwaters from Greenland and the Arctic can impact the strength of the climatically important Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. In this study I investigate and map out the processes that contribute to the accumulation of freshwater in four different regions around Greenland, quantifying horizontal transports of freshwater and the expansion and depletion of freshwater reservoirs by surface sources and interior mixing. Rather than using traditional freshwater budgets, whose flaws are well documented, I propose the novel use of the freshwater transformation framework and apply it to outputs from an eddy resolving coupled climate model (10 km atmosphere and 5 km ocean).

Analysing volume transports in salinity space we observe the salinification of the boundary currents surrounding Greenland as they flow from Fram Strait towards the Labrador Sea. Using the freshwater transformation framework we are able to link the salinification to mixing, sea-ice formation or the accumulation of freshwaters stored in the waters surrounding Greenland. The balance changes depending upon the region and season under question. The mixing of freshwaters is found to be stronger during wintertime than in summertime. Furthermore, mixing plays a more dominant role in the freshwater transformation budget off Southern Greenland, where sea-ice cover is low, than off Northern Greenland, where sea-ice cover is high.

1702地球物理及び地球化学
ad
ad
Follow
ad
タイトルとURLをコピーしました