2025-09-21 マックス・プランク研究所
Illustration of the percentage contributions of global climate change and deforestation to changes in methane, carbon dioxide, maximum surface temperature, and total precipitation during the dry season.
© Dom Jack, Max Planck Institute for Chemistry
＜関連情報＞
- https://www.mpg.de/25312220/deforestation-climate-change-amazon-rainforest
- https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-025-63156-0
気候変動と森林破壊がアマゾン熱帯雨林の変容に及ぼす相互作用 How climate change and deforestation interact in the transformation of the Amazon rainforest
Marco A. Franco,Luciana V. Rizzo,Márcio J. Teixeira,Paulo Artaxo,Tasso Azevedo,Jos Lelieveld,Carlos A. Nobre,Christopher Pöhlker,Ulrich Pöschl,Julia Shimbo,Xiyan Xu & Luiz A. T. Machado
Nature Communications Published:02 September 2025
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-63156-0
Abstract
The Amazon rainforest is one of Earth’s most diverse ecosystems, playing a key role in maintaining regional and global climate stability. However, recent changes in land use, vegetation, and the climate have disrupted biosphere-atmosphere interactions, leading to significant alterations in the water, energy, and carbon cycles. These disturbances have far-reaching consequences for the entire Earth system. Here, we quantify the relative contributions of deforestation and global climate change to observed shifts in key Amazonian climate parameters. We analyzed long-term atmospheric and land cover change data across 29 areas in the Brazilian Legal Amazon from 1985 to 2020, using parametric statistical models to disentangle the effects of forest loss and alterations of temperature, precipitation, and greenhouse gas mixing ratios. While the rise in atmospheric methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2) mixing ratios is primarily driven by global emissions (>99%), deforestation has significantly increased surface air temperatures and reduced precipitation during the Amazonian dry season. Over the past 35 years, deforestation has accounted for approximately 74% of the ~ 21 mm dry season−1 decline and 16.5% of the 2°C rise in maximum surface air temperature. Understanding the interplay between global climate change and deforestation is essential for developing effective mitigation and adaptation strategies to preserve this vital ecosystem.
