2025-09-03 カナダ・ブリティッシュコロンビア大学(UBC)
Web要約 の発言：
＜関連情報＞
- https://news.ubc.ca/2025/09/climate-change-rollercoaster-harvests/
- https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.ady3575
気候変動は気温と水供給の変化を通じて、世界的に夏季作物の収穫量の年ごとの変動幅を拡大している Climate change increases the interannual variance of summer crop yields globally through changes in temperature and water supply
Jonathan Proctor, Lucas Vargas Zeppetello, Duo Chan, and Peter Huybers
Science Advances Published:3 Sep 2025
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.ady3575
Abstract
Year-to-year variance of agricultural productivity is an important determinant of food security. Previous global analyses described increased yield volatility from warming, but it has become increasingly clear that changes in water availability are also a key determinant of yields. Here, we provide the first global quantification of climate change impacts on maize, soybean, and sorghum yield variance due to changes in temperature and soil moisture. Pairing an empirical crop model with CMIP6 simulations indicates that changes in temperature and soil moisture increase interannual weather-induced yield variance by 7 to 19%/c across crops. This increase is driven roughly equally by previously quantified increased temperature stress variance, as well as by increased covariance between temperature and soil moisture stresses. Results using a simple land surface model are consistent with those using CMIP6 simulations in indicating that this increased covariance is driven by warmer air more quickly drying soils and by dry soils promoting greater warming.
