アメリカ全土に広がる氷と火の歌を機械学習で解明(Unraveling the song of ice and fire across the American landscape with machine learning)

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2024-04-25 アルゴンヌ国立研究所(ANL)

アメリカ全土に広がる氷と火の歌を機械学習で解明(Unraveling the song of ice and fire across the American landscape with machine learning)
A small plant surrounded by hail after a hailstorm. Fires in the western U.S. enhance large hailstones in the central U.S. (Image by Shutterstock.)

最近の研究では、米国西部の山火事と中部地域のひょう嵐との間に意外な関連があることが明らかにされました。ジウェン・ファン氏が率いるこの研究では、機械学習技術を用いて、これら異なる現象間の隠れたリンクを解明しています。研究では、2001年から2020年にかけての広範なデータセットを分析し、西部の火災の気象条件や風のパターン、火災自体の特性に基づいて中部州の大きなひょうの発生を予測しています。この研究により、山火事が数千マイル離れた地域の気象イベントに及ぼす影響が示されました。

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米国西部の火災が米国中部の雹嵐に与える影響を機械学習で分析 Machine Learning Analysis of Impact of Western US Fires on Central US Hailstorms

Xinming Lin,Jiwen Fan,Yuwei Zhang &Z. Jason Hou
Advances in Atmospheric Sciences  Published:11 April 2024
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-024-3198-7

Abstract

Fires, including wildfires, harm air quality and essential public services like transportation, communication, and utilities. These fires can also influence atmospheric conditions, including temperature and aerosols, potentially affecting severe convective storms. Here, we investigate the remote impacts of fires in the western United States (WUS) on the occurrence of large hail (size: ⩾ 2.54 cm) in the central US (CUS) over the 20-year period of 2001–20 using the machine learning (ML), Random Forest (RF), and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGB) methods. The developed RF and XGB models demonstrate high accuracy (> 90%) and F1 scores of up to 0.78 in predicting large hail occurrences when WUS fires and CUS hailstorms coincide, particularly in four states (Wyoming, South Dakota, Nebraska, and Kansas). The key contributing variables identified from both ML models include the meteorological variables in the fire region (temperature and moisture), the westerly wind over the plume transport path, and the fire features (i.e., the maximum fire power and burned area). The results confirm a linkage between WUS fires and severe weather in the CUS, corroborating the findings of our previous modeling study conducted on case simulations with a detailed physics model.

1702地球物理及び地球化学
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