アルゴンヌの脱炭素シナリオモデル、炭素排出量ネットゼロへの野心的な道筋を分析(Argonne’s Decarbonization Scenario Model analyzes ambitious pathways to net-zero carbon emissions)

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2024-04-16 アルゴンヌ国立研究所(ANL)

アルゴン国立研究所の新しいDecarbonization Scenario Analysis Modelは、産業ごとの脱炭素化計画を分析し、将来の決定を支援します。このツールは、米国経済全体でのエネルギー使用と温室効果ガスの排出に及ぼす炭素削減手法の影響を評価し、さまざまな産業に特化した炭素削減手法を提供します。研究者は、2030年から2050年までの脱炭素化シナリオを分析し、これにより政策立案者や技術アナリストは、脱炭素化計画を進める上での参考にすることができます。

<関連情報>

米国経済のための脱炭素化の枠組み-セクター、サブセクター、最終用途に基づくアプローチ A deep decarbonization framework for the United States economy – a sector, sub-sector, and end-use based approach

Saurajyoti Kar, Troy R. Hawkins,George G. Zaimes,Doris Oke, Udayan Singh, Xinyi Wu, Hoyoung Kwon, Shannon Zhang, Guiyan Zang, Yan Zhou, Amgad Elgowainy, Michael Wang and  Ookie Ma
Sustainable Energy & Fuels  Published:31 Jan 2024
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1039/D3SE00807J

Abstract

Achieving the United States’ target of net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 will require technological transformations and energy sector mitigation. To understand the role of dynamically evolving technologies, identify synergies and dissonance and the effect of allocating limited low-carbon biomass resources in decarbonizing the U.S. economy, we developed the Decarbonization Scenario Analysis Model. A Life Cycle Assessment based approach is implemented considering the U.S. economy as the functional unit, to estimate greenhouse gas mitigation potential for projected energy demand based on several sector-level and cross-sectoral decarbonization pathways. Direct and supply-chain emissions are accounted, resulting from changes in patterns of energy generation and consumption, technology breakthroughs, and reductions in fugitive emissions over time at the granularity of economic sectors, sub-sectors, and end-use. Decarbonization strategies are implemented over a reference case developed using Energy Information Administration (EIA AEO) projection of economic activities for 2020–2050. Based on the considered scenarios, 80–90% economy-wide decarbonization relative to the 2020 reference case is projected. Electrification, low-carbon fuels, and reduction of fugitive emissions play the most significant role to decarbonization. The majority of the remaining emissions are accounted to the supply-chain and end-use emissions from natural gas and diesel fossil-based fuels in heavy duty transportation and heavy industries, highlighting the need for developing low-carbon and carbon-negative alternatives to mitigate those fossil-based carbon emissions.

アルゴンヌの脱炭素シナリオモデル、炭素排出量ネットゼロへの野心的な道筋を分析(Argonne’s Decarbonization Scenario Model analyzes ambitious pathways to net-zero carbon emissions)

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