南東部の作物収量を予測する新しいツール(New Tool Predicts Crop Yields in the Southeast)

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2023-06-28 ノースカロライナ州立大学(NCState)

◆研究者たちは、アメリカ南東部の主要な作物である綿花、トウモロコシ、ソルガム、大豆の収量を予測するコンピュータモデルを開発しました。このツールは、変化する気候に直面して農家や政府の水資源管理者が作物選択や灌漑技術について情報を得るための支援をすることを目的としています。
◆モデルは、気候、地下水、農業データに基づいて水資源の効率的な利用を支援し、各郡ごとに作物の収量を最大化するための方法を農家に提案します。このツールの利用により、従来の灌漑技術よりも欠損灌漑戦略の使用が利益を増加させることが示されました。

<関連情報>

地域水資源最適化モデリングの枠組みを用いた混合灌漑レジームにおける食糧・エネルギー・水のネクサスの理解 Understanding the Food-Energy-Water Nexus in Mixed Irrigation Regimes Using a Regional Hydroeconomic Optimization Modeling Framework

Hemant KumarTingju ZhuA. Sankarasubramanian
Water Resources Research  Published: 12 June 2023
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1029/2022WR033691

南東部の作物収量を予測する新しいツール(New Tool Predicts Crop Yields in the Southeast)

Abstract

Understanding the nexus between food, energy, and water systems (FEW) is critical for basins with intensive agricultural water use as they face significant challenges under changing climate and regional development. We investigate the food, energy, and water nexus through a regional hydroeconomic optimization (RHEO) modeling framework. The crop production in RHEO is estimated through a hierarchical regression model developed using a biophysical model, AquaCropOS, forced with daily climatic inputs. Incorporating the hierarchical model within the RHEO also reduces the computation time by enabling parallel programming within the AquaCropOS and facilitates mixed irrigation—rainfed, fully irrigated and deficit irrigation—strategies. To demonstrate the RHEO framework, we considered a groundwater-dominated basin, South Flint River Basin, Georgia, for developing mixed irrigation strategies over 31 years. Our analyses show that optimal deficit irrigation is economically better than full irrigation, which increases the groundwater pumping cost. Thus, considering deficit irrigation in a groundwater-dominated basin reduces the water, carbon, and energy footprints, thereby reducing FEW vulnerability. The RHEO also could be employed for analyzing FEW nexus under potential climate change and future regional development scenarios.

Key Points

  • A new regional hydroeconomic optimization modeling framework is proposed for mixed irrigation regimes using AquaCropOS
  • Optimal deficit irrigation strategy is economically better than full irrigation by reducing the cost and energy for groundwater pumping
  • Crop simulation module and optimization module are linked using Bayesian Hierarchical Model to reduce computation time
1200農業一般
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