2025-12-01 九州大学
【参考図】東アジア全域の夏季（7~9月）の台風による月平均降水量の将来変化（暖色系は増加、寒色系は減少）。(a)コア降水と台風遠隔降水の合計。(b)コア降水のみ。(c)台風遠隔降水のみ。
＜関連情報＞
- https://www.kyushu-u.ac.jp/ja/researches/view/1374
- https://www.kyushu-u.ac.jp/f/64115/25_1201_02.pdf
- https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.70201
東アジアにおける北半球夏季の熱帯低気圧関連降水の擬似地球温暖化気候への応答 Response of Tropical Cyclone-Related Precipitation During Boreal Summer Season Over East Asia to Pseudo-Global-Warming Climates
Jiwei Wu, Ryuichi Kawamura, Takashi Mochizuki, Tetsuya Kawano
International Journal of Climatology Published: 23 November 2025
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70201
ABSTRACT
Climate change has fundamentally altered tropical cyclone (TC) characteristics globally, with TC-related precipitation emerging as a critical hazard under global warming. East Asia (EA) faces increasing risks from extreme precipitation events, yet comprehensive research addressing continental-scale TC precipitation changes under future climate conditions remains limited. This study presents the first systematic investigation of TC-related precipitation evolution across the entire EA continent during boreal summer under a global warming scenario. We employed the pseudo-global-warming technique coupled with high-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting model simulations to examine TC behaviour and precipitation patterns. Our analysis encompasses 38 successfully simulated TCs selected from 111 historical cases based on rigorous validation criteria. We distinguished between TC core precipitation occurring within body circulation and TC-related remote precipitation identified through integrated vapour transport channel detection. Results reveal substantial precipitation amplification under the SSP245 scenario, with total TC precipitation increasing by 125.6% over EA relative to present conditions. These changes coincide with significant TC intensification. On the other hand, the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) shows a pronounced eastward retreat, fundamentally altering steering flow patterns and promoting deeper TC penetration into mainland China, while increasing Japanese landfall frequency. Enhanced atmospheric moisture content provides favourable thermodynamic conditions for rainfall intensification. These findings indicate that global warming creates favourable development conditions for TC precipitation over the EA.
