2025-05-15 カリフォルニア大学サンディエゴ校 (UCSD)
＜関連情報＞
- https://today.ucsd.edu/story/clean-power-surge-needed-chinas-2035-climate-plan-must-aim-high
- https://www.cell.com/cell-reports-sustainability/fulltext/S2949-7906(25)00085-0
中国とその先の電力セクターの脱炭素化のために風力と太陽光発電の目標を強化する Ratcheting up wind and solar targets for decarbonizing the power sector in China and beyond
Zhenhua Zhang ∙ Ziheng Zhu (朱子恒) ∙ Xi Lu ∙ Da Zhang ∙ Michael R. Davidson
Cell Reports Sustainability Published:May 15, 2025
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crsus.2025.100389
Graphical abstract
Science for society
Under the Paris Agreement, all countries are required to update their nationally determined contributions (NDCs), a set of climate targets and implementation plans, every 5 years. China, the world’s largest greenhouse gas emitter, continues to be the cornerstone of achieving the goals of the agreement. In light of this, we develop a capacity expansion model with high spatial and temporal resolution to examine the decarbonization pathways for China’s power sector through 2035 and the implications for its 2035 target setting. We find that around 2,350 GW of wind and solar will need to be deployed by 2030 and 2,910 GW by 2035 to comply with a 2°C global temperature rise target. Additionally, wind and solar generation shares can increase from 17.9% in 2024 to 41% in 2030 and 49% in 2035. We argue that a more robust climate action framework should be adopted for China’s power sector in its 2035 NDC. Our proposed framework emphasizes the importance of introducing a clean energy share target—one that is both implementable and binding. This target may be more relevant and suitable in China’s context than solely relying upon emissions caps.
Highlights
•We examine power sector targets China could set in its 2035 NDC update
•At least 2,350 GW of wind and solar are expected to be deployed by 2030
•Wind and solar generation shares can increase to 41% by 2030 and 49% by 2035
•We propose adding a clean energy share target to China’s climate action framework
Summary
As countries are releasing their 2035 nationally determined contributions (NDCs), we examine the renewable deployment requirements for China to meet its climate targets. We develop a power system model with high spatial and temporal resolutions to make optimal capacity expansion decisions for China’s power sector through 2035. We find that 2,350–2,780 gigawatts (GW) of wind and solar will need to be deployed by 2030 and 2,910–3,800 GW by 2035 to be consistent with a 2°C global temperature rise target. Wind and solar shares in the generation mix can increase from 17.9% in 2024 to 41%–46% in 2030 and 49%–56% in 2035. A more robust climate action framework is proposed for China’s power sector in its 2035 NDC.
