世界の化石燃料によるCO2排出量の転換期はまだ来ていない(Turning point in global fossil CO2 emissions has not yet been reached)

2024-11-13 ミュンヘン大学（LMU）

Coal emissions, which make up roughly 41 percent of global emissions, will also climb slightly .
© Sven Simon/imago images

＜関連情報＞

• https://www.lmu.de/en/newsroom/news-overview/news/turning-point-in-global-fossil-co2-emissions-has-not-yet-been-reached.html
• https://essd.copernicus.org/preprints/essd-2024-519/

2024年の世界炭素予算 Global Carbon Budget 2024

Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O’Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Judith Hauck, Peter Landschützer, Corinne Le Quéré, Hongmei Li, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Are Olsen, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Almut Arneth, Vivek Arora, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Carla F. Berghoff, Henry C. Bittig, Laurent Bopp, Patricia Cadule, Katie Campbell, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Naveen Chandra, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Thomas Colligan, Jeanne Decayeux, Laique Djeutchouang, Xinyu Dou, Carolina Duran Rojas, Kazutaka Enyo, Wiley Evans, Amanda Fay, Richard A. Feely, Daniel J. Ford, Adrianna Foster, Thomas Gasser, Marion Gehlen, Thanos Gkritzalis, Giacomo Grassi, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Özgür Gürses, Ian Harris, Matthew Hefner, Jens Heinke, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Andrew R. Jacobson, Atul Jain, Tereza Jarníková, Annika Jersild, Fei Jiang, Zhe Jin, Etsushi Kato, Ralph F. Keeling, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Siv K. Lauvset, Nathalie Lefèvre, Zhu Liu, Junjie Liu, Lei Ma, Shamil Maksyutov, Gregg Marland, Nicolas Mayot, Patrick McGuire, Nicolas Metzl, Natalie M. Monacci, Eric J. Morgan, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Craig Neill, Yosuke Niwa, Tobias Nützel, Lea Olivier, Tsuneo Ono, Paul I. Palmer, Denis Pierrot, Zhangcai Qin, Laure Resplandy, Alizée Roobaert, Thais M. Rosan, Christian Rödenbeck, Jörg Schwinger, T. Luke Smallman, Stephen Smith, Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso, Tobias Steinhoff, Qing Sun, Adrienne J. Sutton, Roland Séférian, Shintaro Takao, Hiroaki Tatebe, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Olivier Torres, Etienne Tourigny, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Francesco Tubiello, Guido van der Werf, Rik Wanninkhof, Xuhui Wang, Dongxu Yang, Xiaojuan Yang, Zhen Yu, Wenping Yuan, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle, Ning Zeng, and Jiye Zeng
Earth System Science Data  Published:13 Nov 2024
DOI:https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-519

Abstract

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesise datasets and methodologies to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO₂ emissions (E_FOS) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (E_LUC) are based on land-use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO₂ concentration is measured directly, and its growth rate (G_ATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO₂ sink (S_OCEAN) is estimated with global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-based fCO₂-products. The terrestrial CO₂ sink (S_LAND) is estimated with dynamic global vegetation models. Additional lines of evidence on land and ocean sinks are provided by atmospheric inversions, atmospheric oxygen measurements and Earth System Models. The sum of all sources and sinks results in the carbon budget imbalance (B_IM), a measure of imperfect data and incomplete understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ.

For the year 2023, E_FOS increased by 1.3 % relative to 2022, with fossil emissions at 10.1 ± 0.5 GtC yr^-1 (10.3 ± 0.5 GtC yr^-1 when the cement carbonation sink is not included), E_LUC was 1.0 ± 0.7 GtC yr^-1, for a total anthropogenic CO₂ emission (including the cement carbonation sink) of 11.1 ± 0.9 GtC yr^-1 (40.6 ± 3.2 GtCO₂ yr^-1). Also, for 2023, G_ATM was 5.9 ± 0.2 GtC yr^-1 (2.79 ± 0.1 ppm yr^-1), S_OCEAN was 2.9 ± 0.4 GtC yr^-1 and S_LAND was 2.3 ± 1.0 GtC yr^-1, with a near zero B_IM (-0.02 GtC yr^-1). The global atmospheric CO₂ concentration averaged over 2023 reached 419.3 ± 0.1 ppm. Preliminary data for 2024, suggest an increase in E_FOS relative to 2023 of +0.8 % (-0.3 % to 1.9 %) globally, and atmospheric CO₂ concentration increased by 2.8 ppm reaching 422.5 ppm, 52 % above pre-industrial level (around 278 ppm in 1750). Overall, the mean and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2023, with a near-zero overall budget imbalance, although discrepancies of up to around 1 GtC yr^-1 persist for the representation of annual to semi-decadal variability in CO₂ fluxes. Comparison of estimates from multiple approaches and observations shows: (1) a persistent large uncertainty in the estimate of land-use changes emissions, (2) a low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO₂ flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) a discrepancy between the different methods on the mean ocean sink.

This living data update documents changes in methods and datasets applied to this most-recent global carbon budget as well as evolving community understanding of the global carbon cycle. The data presented in this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2024 (Friedlingstein et al., 2024).